Given the share price weakness, the VRTX pipeline worth (according to S&P analysts) up to $7 billion a year for CF alone starting next year, could be bought out at a huge discount by a larger pharma needing new and growing stream of revenue and a strong R&D pipeline of other drugs in development.
Vertex is so undervalued for its potential (VX-135, VX-809, VX-661, and Kalydeco) that it is possible that Carl Icahn is looking into VRTX. He rescued Apple share price recently, and before that straightened out the managements of Biogen and Genzyme. Kalydeco alone with its potential to treat all Kalydeco monotherapy-responsive CF persons (15%=10,000) can generate $2B revenue.
I hope he does looks into VRTX. I believe someone somehow needs to do something fairly quickly to stop the bleeding.
This may be unorthodox and naive on my part, but with lack of any partnership takers for the RA and the Flu drug, maybe the management should put the two on the auction block and take the best offer rather than putting them on the shelf like management has been doing. If I remember correctly, the management announced last year that they were going to look for a partner for RA and almost a year later nothing has happened.
Doubtful. Their costs/rents/head count are too high and the rest of the pipeline (RA, new hepatitis meds, etc) is doubtful. If a large pharma spends $20b for unproven CF and they fail in Phase III it would not look good!
But if they do work (highly likely based on Phase 2 data) it's an incredible value, with the rest of the pipeline thrown in basically for free at a 20 billion price. The headcount can be cut, the rents can be sublet if need be, but blockbuster revenues are nard to come by, and many large pharma need drugs like 770, 809, and 661 which will be likely successes for many years.