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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • swhitemd50 swhitemd50 Nov 9, 2013 2:14 PM Flag

    The good, the bad and the ugly

    First, the bad and ugly:

    Incivek may have been the fastest drug to reach blockbuster status and probably the fastest blockbuster drug to to crash and burn.
    There are no partners for VX787 or VX509.
    VX135 prospects are in doubt.
    Insiders continue to sell their shares.
    The market cap has dropped about $3.5 billion ( 20%) just since earnings on 10/29/13.
    Anyone purchasing shares after 4/19/13 is underwater and tax loss selling season is coming.
    The stock price has made a significant low near the end of each calendar year including 2010, 2011, & 2012 and it looks like it will do the same thing this year.
    The company will continue to lose money until at least 2015 and the only thing that will stop the red ink is approval of VX809.

    What's good:

    Kalydeco revenues continue to increase and Kalydeco monotherapy will probably be approved for other mutations.
    VX809 had excellent phase II results and I believe it is likely the phase III results will be similar.
    The company is cutting costs by cutting its workforce 15% (though, they should also be reducing the ranks of their bloated, overcompensated and underachieving management, not just the workers).
    The company appears to have enough cash to keep going until approval of VX809.

    The bottom line:

    The stock price will probably continue to fall in the near term given the negative factors listed above. As long as the CF drug development story remains intact, there is significant potential upside over the next 8 to 24 months. I will continue to hold my shares unless the new CF drugs do not work out.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • swhitemd,

      Good post. I agree with most of what you said. Not sure why you are so convinced why there is no potential partner for either VX-787 or VX-509? Sometimes the details of these partnerships take a while to work out. Any announcement of a decent partnership would raise Vertex's stock price in the short term.

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