Hep C g2/3 are not going to generate large revenues in perpetuity...
Google "Breakthrough hep C meds aren't yet for sale, but critics already taking aim at prices"
Been saying that this would be the case for years... the only way Gilead recovers their 10 billion VRUS price tag is if they flood the market. If this is the strategy, any approval for G1 would be the death knell in valuations for all competing products.
Also look at, "Will The New Hepatitis C Drugs Trigger A Battle Over Cost?"
With a price tag estimated for sofosbuvir pricing at $80,000 to $90,000 per patient in the US... why wouldn't anyone just hop on a plane to a lower priced market for a speculative $500 price tag? That is lower than most deductibles.
" why wouldn't anyone just hop on a plane to a lower priced market for a speculative $500 price tag?"
I remember the same thing being said about HIV drugs -- people were going to Africa and buying the drugs on the cheap. It did not happen for several reasons.
1. Drug companies made these countries, as well as the providers of the drugs. aware that they would not tolerate such sales to foreigners and the cheaper priced drugs provided to them were for strict use of their citizens only.
2. These drugs can not be duplicated by clandestine drug labs (such as Viagra) because they are complex formulations and are not just a brew of chemical mixtures. Any illegal copies are dangerous to take and people would be stupid to risk taking them.
3. For the majority of people, their insurance companies cover the cost so why go through the hassle and risk?
As far as a price war, it may happen but I doubt it. When incivek and victrelis were approved and came to market no price war developed. And that with victrelis even being less effective.
And yes, I considered that someone would have to smuggle 36 pills into the US. Having paid $70,000 for child # 1 and $50,000 for child # 2 for minor complications at that, I can tell you it takes a long time to pay that off.