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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • bootpart bootpart Mar 5, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    The future?

    Roughly speaking the current market cap for vertex reflects most of the cf pipeline. Maybe a little more upside but not doubling any time soon. So, what's after cf? I know they are in cancer and huntingtons but would guess either of them is at least 4 yrs away. That's a big gap. I think their inability to progress RA, flu and HCV do not bode well for internal programs (remember, vertex bought cf when they bought aurora bio and that took about 10 years to get to market) they need to purchase to grow. Thoughts?

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    • Even if the [Lumacaftor + Kalydeco] combo were only marginally effective for homozygous 508 CFers and Lumacaftor is distributed free of charge, the revenue from the sale of Kalydeco alone would jump 14 fold (from treating 4% to treating 56%) from the current 0.5 B to 7.0 B. The market cap for a company which brings in 7 B and has a pipeline of VX-661 and a second generation corrector would be worth at least 70 B. If the second gen corrector is effective in treating heterozygous 508 CFTRs, nearly 80% of CFers can be treated with the triple combo with the FEV1 improvement of 10% minimum (52 % of all has homozygous 508 and about 27% of all has heterozygous 508). Such triple combo would have a value twice the value of Kalydeco (about 400 K per year) the market cap would double from 70 B ($400K x 50 K CFers = 20 B annual rev.). Never never short this stock. If you like to sell something, sell out-of-the-money puts.

      • 2 Replies to thirdmeinvestor
      • It will be fun if study 102 cohort 4 in heterozygous on high dose VX 809 shows statistically significant improvement in FEV-1. This cohort has roll over study as well. Stuart Arbuckle in one of the conferences has said that FDA has asked them to do this cohort in heterozygous. Biostaticians at FDA must be seeing something. We may not have to wait for a 2 nd corrector. Two previous CEO's have stop selling their shares since 12/2013.

      • thanks, good input. Just after I posted I came across an article about proteostasis (google "proteostasis a step closer".....). Promising cf treatment for the most common genotype (70%) with IND filing in 2015. So I think Vertex will see substantial competition in about 3 years in CF....too lucrative a market and they won't have it to themselves for long. I am trying to understand their path forward beyond cf. we'll see....I do think they will need to acquire but probably can't do so until they are safely selling the cf combo. I am long vertex with a substantial investment (for me!). I'd like to see them become a biogen but the path is cloudy.

 
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