You clearly have a good sense of the PI landscape. The longer it takes for VX-478 to come out the harder it will be for vertex to get a foothold. I think the likelihood of a 1998NDA is beginning to fade.
What do you think about their HEPC program. HEPC seems to be one of the most highly competitive arenas for drug development. It seems like this program could also arrive on the scene too late. The prospect of a good vaccine in general complicates the horizon for small molecule cocktail fixers.
It's interesting that Eli Lily bought into the HEPC PI program and then a few months later Vrtx announced the solution of the HEPC helicase crystal structure. It will be interesting to see which platform produces the first lead. I wonder whether Lily might be tempted to expand their collab, if the helicase produces first results. Regardless, I think a good gauge of the long term value of vertex's platform will be the time it takes from the crystallization of a target to the identification of a clinical candidate.