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Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

  • freixoman freixoman May 1, 1999 6:02 PM Flag

    alarming news

    Take a look
    at:

    http://www.sltrib.com/1999/apr/04301999/nation_w/101828.htm

    Apparently S. Africa is getting ready to create generic
    copies of PATENTED drugs, drugs to treat AIDS, with the
    excuse that it has an emergency situation and cannot
    respect world intellectual property rights. If this goes
    forward, and S. Africa is not punished in an exemplary
    fashion so that it stops, this would spell the rapid end
    of VRTX, GILD, BCHE, AGPH and most other companies
    that get large amounts of revenue from AIDS
    medications. And then it would spread to other drugs, etc. and
    essentially, I would think, wipe out most of the world
    pharmaceutical industry. And if drugs, why not software: MSoft,
    for example? Not a laughing matter. Opinions invited.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Hey Buttwipes,

      Stock is smokin. Deal with
      it, OK? Did someone just pass wind,
      or is the
      stock just happy to see me. I am like SO so
      happy
      that I got out of AGPH and into this.

      For
      that, I be da man. Yesindeedilydoo!

      DTS

    • Many thanks for posting script numbers for
      Agenerase previously. Could you or someone else possibly
      give us an update on the more recent script
      numbers?

      BTW, if one insists on calculating yearly sales for a
      drug based on prescription figures from its first
      month of launch, then a massive underestimation of
      yearly sales is guaranteed. As far as competition goes,
      the issue is how successful Glaxo sales force can be
      in getting out word of the advantages of Agenerase
      (more convenient dosing, no altered lipid metabolism,
      superior brain delivery, different resistance profile,
      etc).

    • Ok,

      So if you multiply the numbers by 4
      you get 4692 patients. At the end of the year, they
      will have been on the drug for seven months which is
      $3,577 per patient for the year. That means year end
      revenue of $16 million. Again, if estimates are for $75
      to $100 million for this year, wont it be difficult
      to achieve this?

      Also, my broker told me that
      Abbott just relaunched Norvir as a soft gel capsule.
      When Roche did this with saquinavir they penetrated
      the market quickly. Wont that make it even more
      difficult for Agenerase?

    • bioguy states it well plus you're looking at the
      numbers incorrectly. It was scrips filled for the week.
      I'm assuming most patients are getting a months
      supply, so multiply your numbers by 4 for a raw figure
      that sales would annualize at if the current run rate
      remains the same.

    • should not be based on the first month sales of
      Agenerase. It takes many months of detailing the target
      physicians to build a clientele. More telling than the first
      sales figures out of the chute will be the increases in
      new prescriptions and refills. Look for weekly
      increases of several percent for the next several months if
      Agenerase is receiving decent acceptance.

    • Glaxo needs to deploy its prettiest blond reps to
      get this thing humming. They're on the
      street......this should pick up.

      This ain't the one to
      rocket this puppy to the moon. Just establishes them as
      a player until some real homers can be scored.
      Gives 'em a little more money to burn. Like to see a
      bit more myself before we investor types get
      burned.

      (Ever notice shareholder value is never mentioned in
      annual report)

    • If there are 1173 patients using Agenerase and
      the drug cost $6,100 per year, that means total sales
      for the year of a little over $7 million.


      Most analyst estimates are for $75 to $100 million in
      sales. So won't this mean analysts will have to bring
      down their estimates?

    • Look up the stock symbol RX.
      Amongst other things, they're the major/only provider of prescription data.
      Its very expensive to subscribe. Fortunately I have friends!

    • I'm very curious because I've been bugging my broker for those numbers on a daily basis.

    • View More Messages
 
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