Take a look
Apparently S. Africa is getting ready to create generic
copies of PATENTED drugs, drugs to treat AIDS, with the
excuse that it has an emergency situation and cannot
respect world intellectual property rights. If this goes
forward, and S. Africa is not punished in an exemplary
fashion so that it stops, this would spell the rapid end
of VRTX, GILD, BCHE, AGPH and most other companies
that get large amounts of revenue from AIDS
medications. And then it would spread to other drugs, etc. and
essentially, I would think, wipe out most of the world
pharmaceutical industry. And if drugs, why not software: MSoft,
for example? Not a laughing matter. Opinions invited.
Stock is smokin. Deal with
it, OK? Did someone just pass wind,
or is the
stock just happy to see me. I am like SO so
that I got out of AGPH and into this.
that, I be da man. Yesindeedilydoo!
Many thanks for posting script numbers for
Agenerase previously. Could you or someone else possibly
give us an update on the more recent script
BTW, if one insists on calculating yearly sales for a
drug based on prescription figures from its first
month of launch, then a massive underestimation of
yearly sales is guaranteed. As far as competition goes,
the issue is how successful Glaxo sales force can be
in getting out word of the advantages of Agenerase
(more convenient dosing, no altered lipid metabolism,
superior brain delivery, different resistance profile,
So if you multiply the numbers by 4
you get 4692 patients. At the end of the year, they
will have been on the drug for seven months which is
$3,577 per patient for the year. That means year end
revenue of $16 million. Again, if estimates are for $75
to $100 million for this year, wont it be difficult
to achieve this?
Also, my broker told me that
Abbott just relaunched Norvir as a soft gel capsule.
When Roche did this with saquinavir they penetrated
the market quickly. Wont that make it even more
difficult for Agenerase?
bioguy states it well plus you're looking at the
numbers incorrectly. It was scrips filled for the week.
I'm assuming most patients are getting a months
supply, so multiply your numbers by 4 for a raw figure
that sales would annualize at if the current run rate
remains the same.
should not be based on the first month sales of
Agenerase. It takes many months of detailing the target
physicians to build a clientele. More telling than the first
sales figures out of the chute will be the increases in
new prescriptions and refills. Look for weekly
increases of several percent for the next several months if
Agenerase is receiving decent acceptance.
Glaxo needs to deploy its prettiest blond reps to
get this thing humming. They're on the
street......this should pick up.
This ain't the one to
rocket this puppy to the moon. Just establishes them as
a player until some real homers can be scored.
Gives 'em a little more money to burn. Like to see a
bit more myself before we investor types get
(Ever notice shareholder value is never mentioned in
If there are 1173 patients using Agenerase and
the drug cost $6,100 per year, that means total sales
for the year of a little over $7 million.
Most analyst estimates are for $75 to $100 million in
sales. So won't this mean analysts will have to bring
down their estimates?