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E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company Message Board

  • fan_of_funfun fan_of_funfun Jan 11, 2013 11:55 PM Flag

    Monsanto ends day above $100, DuPont loses value AGAIN

    Gotta love those "wise" guys like "smart" who hate Monsanto but continue to lose money with DD shares.

    Thankfully, we don't have to listen to not-that-bright anymore, who clearly was told to drop off the board when she embarrassed DuPont one too many times with her asinine postings.

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    • More Fun-nut rhetoric vs. reality. Old timers here remember him stating on this message board he was buying this stock at $107 per share years ago. MON is unacceptable to me simply because its business practices and dividends are unacceptable to me.

      • 2 Replies to smart401k2012
      • smart,

        i little story that burned me in the past with MON was that back in June 2008 at 120 I did buy MON (i was long and bullish), at that time I was also long at DuPont at 41.80.

        In these board discussions we participate i got very enthusiastic about the possibility MON would surpass the 200, as most analysts and investors thought, at that time, DD was sort of same as today, a solid investment and firm dividend return.

        I got burned when MON came down from 120 touching 70, it is today at 100 and some people continue to think MON will go sky high from these levels.

        What jeopardized MON results was glyphosate prices, at that time the company was at least 50% weighted on this well known commodity and many of the biotech seed block busters that were expected to be launched in 5 years, were then said to be a bit more complex than it was thought before, and till now, most of that is still being developed by MON. i tend to say that MON did launch and developed new biotech launchings, eg. its BT soybean now in launching phase, but not by far, all it was expected.

        Currently, probably 1/3 of MON results (it needs a deeper looking), still comes from glyphosates, and one needs to be very carefull to invest in MON at current levels expecting it will again go sky high and surpass 200; Considering glypho is still a commodity, who knows, when chinese producers will cause another oversupply in this segment.

        DD is today at 46, 10% return from my end, not considering dividends, and moving higher.

        If i split all i have heard in this board, there are 2 things to consider, DD management performance, and DD, by itself, as an investment.

        Since 2008 DD management has made a tremenduous transformation in DD, every day it is less dependent on old chemicals and strategic investments have been made in bold acquisitions such as Solae, Danisco, mordernization of pension benefits, fixed cost reduction in the U.S. and Europe regions, better focus on developing countries, etc.

        Could we imagine DD still being heavily weighted on Nylon, Lycra, Coatings ? Thus, so far, Kudos to DD.

        To what it refers to Pioneer, i also learned these last years that, fundamentally Pioneer has as its business foundation having the best germoplasma, while MON, even though not counting on a state of the art germoplasma, continues to pursue and focus on its biotech journey.

        The other theme would be results, i mean stock appreciation. Overall, having learned about these 2 companies in past years, I consider it risky to think MON is a great investment at these levels, im still not sure on MON's capacity to maintain its results regardless of glypho, and to what it refers to DD, at least from my end, so far so good, I got 10% return (not counting dividends) and the transformation continues, IMHO DD has the potential to surpass 50 in Q1 depending on Q412 results.

        overall, this comparision, MON vs DD stuff, is nosense and a waste of time, IMHO.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • Smartarse

        Mr. Funfun (Dr. Fun to you) never pitched MON shares at $107 like you claim. Juts another BOLD-FACED lie from you, just like the lies you've made that you made double-digit returns for 15 years on DD stock.

        MON's reputation is coming around. Only the hard-headed kooks like you still hate the company. Simple jealousy on your part.

    • Fan,

      The appropriate approach for comparing DD with MON is to carve out financials for Pioneer + DD Crop and compare with MON. Large players like BAYER, BASF and Syngenta are in the run for structuring its seed businesses (overall them all have weak seed businesses and compared to these major large crop defensive players, DD has the best seed business positioning), at present, if you consider both DD Ag businesses, DD is the #1 player in many key markets. Eg. Brazil where the planting area has in between 50 and 100M hectares for new planting ... there is where the big league is going to happen.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to popa1717
      • Popa

        Here are the BRUTAL facts:
        MON market cap = $53 Billion
        DD market cap = $43 Billion

        MON is ALL seeds and Ag, DD is some seeds and Ag.

        So...the rest of DuPont, including TiO2 business, is worth NEGATIVE $10 Billion if DD/Pioneer is really as good as MON.

        I've long recommended that DuPont spin off Pioneer - it has to be worth $20 Billion, use the cash to pay down debt and acquire a smaller specialty chemical company (FMC, et al). Then dump DuPont's management and put FMC in place.

        BUT WAIT...DuPont says it's not a chemical company.

        Wall Street has finally figured out that DD is over-rated and priced it accordingly.

 
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