Progressive Return Fund (PGF) Message Board

A post on Stockhouse today reminded me of this old saying. I think its really appropriate to the markets today as I believe everything is expensive and that the tide is indeed causing all boats to rise.

When it comes to finances and tech analysis, I am just a simple minded guy with a small pocketbook who has really been very very lucky the last 5 years. I loosely follow about 30 stocks with a close watch on 12 or so. Several are just sentimental stocks that are way below my divie % criteria but solid 100 year payers that I have held in the past.

Those stocks aside, I watch my 2 US MBS REITS, and all the rest are Canadian Trusts. One is a diversified and all others are O&G. The O&G also make up ~80%+ of all my folios.

So, anyway in my wandering way, my point is I am always trying to look ahead to ID what is the next new stock purchase. I have not been able to find one for quite awhile, I purchased BTO as a concession to my need to maintain at least some margin ability since I have the need for cash draws from time to time. I prefer to use monthly distributions to repay this loan rather than decrease the principal.

Sorry, to the long time BTO holders but although its a nice holding both its liquidity and its divie % are quite a cut below my normal requirements (although in prior times I have held UST, He and NFB for several years).

Part of my problem may be my O&G universe which IMHO is currently being manipulated by both the traders and the Hedgies (although I firmly believe in the longer term outlook for O&G).

And it is to this phenomia that I refer to flying pigs, cause close your eyes and throw a dart at a list of the O&Gs, then look at its chart....you will see a steady, constant upward gradient for the last three or four weeks, with any given close probably a new 52 week high.

My last bastion of higher distribution has just dipped under 16% but remains the only candidate for monthly IRA reinvestment at the moment. It may be time for a new paradyme for this oldtimer. If this trend continues into the colder weather I may have to again adjust my sights downard from 16% minimum to 12% or so, as I had to adjust earlier down from 24-26%.

I am not fond of change, I like my stocks to stay cheap and pay big distributions so I can keep buyin em cheap. Of course I really prefer getting paid 26% rather than 15% I get now for some of my holdings.

The bottom line: hard time to find and make new purchases and a shakeout may be in the cards (due to traders and not energy fundamentals). Long term, I remain commited to staying in the energy space.

If I could afford to take anymore CGs, I would roll out of 50% of each of my gainers that approach or are greater than 100% and roll into different O&Gs that although expensive are paying better %, however need to wait for taxable 2005 for that.

It may get bumpy..but the very short term green I see today is truly a pretty sight

Be Cautious
Luck
LTBH