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Amarantus Bioscience Holdings, Inc Message Board

  • riskreturn168 riskreturn168 Oct 9, 2013 10:27 AM Flag

    Guesses About Validation Results

    1) AMBS is still preparing their response to the positive validation results.
    2) AMBS is sitting on the results until market conditions improve.
    3) AMBS and BD are still negotiating a sales partnership deal!!

    Perhaps negotiations came to an impasse a few weeks ago over the terms of a sales partnership deal. So then maybe Gerald called BD's bluff and went out and obtained additional dilutive financing to show BD we could go it alone until we find a partner who will pay us what it is worth? Now with the world (and BD's competition) about to find out how accurate a blood test this is in diagnosing Alzheimer's disease, BD is upping their offer? I don't know if this is happening, but it's certainly a reasonable possibility.

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    • You missed one scenario: the results could also be less than expected. It happened when I was in CLSN. HUGE disappointment. At this point, unfortunately, there is a falling knife coming if news does not materialize because people will begin to fear the worst. I no longer think it's a smart move to be all in. Selling half of my CLSN before the data was the best move I ever made, and I am struggling to decide if it may be prudent here as well. I've been in since last year, and I didn't even flip, which was a mistake. I would like to start flipping, to be honest!

      • 1 Reply to zarconimous
      • zarconimous: In my conversation with Gerald in Vegas, it seemed to take for granted that the results were positive. He used numbers like 91%. I asked him if he had been getting update and whether he knew the results and he said he did. So, I'm not worrying about them coming back bad. I have made a chart for myself forecasting what I think the pps will be for AMBS for the next 15 months or so. I have tried to be as conservative as possible. I think I put us at .10 by November, .13 cents by January, .20 cents by April, etc. I'm comfortable with my conservative projections based on the catalysts I believe the company will be reporting on over the next few weeks and months.

    • Where's Watson!!!??? No where to be found...

    • My guess would be a joint of 1 and 2.

    • bhuston77 Oct 9, 2013 1:16 PM Flag

      I don't see how threads like this one are helpful.

    • The debt ceiling macroenvironment is an interesting question. Usually I see right thru most things but this one i'm not so sure. Gerald did specifically cite this as a huge reason as to why the dilution happened...i think big money doesnt like risk lol. call it a gas surcharge or like when you try to get insurance on a house the day before a hurricane is forecast to track towardsya, the policy wont start until a few days later...and money and businesses know this is the e x a c t time to go strong and stand fast...especially considering what? usa is going to go belly up for real? if so,,,then all of us have MUCH bigger problems than ambs gone belly telly up.

    • Number 3 is VERY unlikely, given that a gov. shutdown would not be a time for a company to say, "hey, you know that money I was going to give you? Why don't I give you even more of it!" There is no convincing catalyst that would raise the price of Lympro now, at this exact moment, during a govt. shutdown.

      If there was ever a week or two to not take massive risks, no matter what company you are, it would be these two weeks. Sure, things might be in the works but I don't see any contracts being signed or agreements being made until this all blows over. 1 and 2 both imo are possible.

    • My guess is the assay results were as advertised. Now BD management must agree to fund/develop a product. The product dev process and validation of the product for clinical use will take time, but is predictable at least. Marketing and other plans may/may not start at same time. If that happens, pressure and expectations grow rapidly and are often in front to any real product. Not to worry though because while all this is going on other indications/products can be spun...quickly reaching big nums. Lots of ..what IFFing going on but when it happens they are out of the woods and AMBS is HUGE to go. My guess is that BD/AMBS are sitting on any actual test/diagnostic device PR until everyone agrees. My best specuulation is , if the assay performed as planned it will be very hard to keep it quiet for long. Gerald has to synch his plans. Hope it is soon, like today would be fine with me.

      • 1 Reply to nidan7500
      • this all makes a lot of sense. The crazy thing is how are they managing to keep such a tight lid on the results. Surely by now someone would be spilling the beans. Maybe this is what big bang is aluding to. Market seems to be shoring up with some pretty good vol purchases and then some idiot puts a market order in to sell 10000 shares and down we go again. Seems like a fair amount of falseness going on yet at the end of the day in spite of the day end rally, down again. This is first time, I have every been involved in a small cap with so much real potential. Usually all smoke and mirrors. And if you go back a little in history. This had some of that, with the original corporate names etc. One has to wonder how Gerald knew to take over the Manf from some one else, and why they did not do what he has done.

    • Ask the super brain here on the board who has all the sources and insight into biotech.

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