Watson, I always enjoy reading your posts, you generate a lot of excitement. I especially found your going out on a limb prediction that LymPro would have 250 million in revenue for 2015 and 600 million in 2016! My...those are some breathtaking numbers!! With 2015 revenue of 250 milllion, if an analyst multiplied that times 8 he would come up with a 2 billion dollar net present value for AMBS. With 800 million shares, that would translate to $2.50 per share for LymPro alone, not even considering MANF. $2.50 pps, boy, I could sure go for that! However, as excited as I am, I'm wondering how you come up with those numbers? Napodano said the "revenue opportunity for LymPro under CLIA was several hundred million." Now, does that mean the very first year? Is it possible the revenue could be 50 million the first year, 150 million the second, 400 million the third, and so on and so forth. This gradual step up approach would allow LymPro some time to become the "industry standard" before it garners the entire market. It gives LymPro some time to ramp up before they hit several hundred million per year. I'd hate to get AMBS shareholder's expectations up for 250 million in 2015 when 60 million would be a home run! But there is a big difference in how much those two numbers effect our pps. Watson, would you be so kind as to elaborate on why you think 250 million is the revenue we'll bring in next year? How do you come up with those numbers? Guessing is fine, but I think everyone here on the mb needs to be on the same page in understanding what you are doing. I think some here are now expecting Gerald to announce 250 million and will be disappointed if he announces 60 million. Thank you, in advance.
Just cuz Watson said it does not mean that is the number but he does seem to have some insight. Consider all the AZ trials that will start because of Lympro! What do you think the 50+ meetings were at BIO? Some were likely for MANF or Eltoprazine, but most were related to Lympro I bet. Don't count out global or a bigger partner than expected. AMBS was going for CLIA partner which would have been a Quest or similar. Don't count out a partner getting in now for CLIA and FDA commercialization. Don't count out TBI being folded in here too.
Yes, most the time sales are gradual but that is when there are other "viable" options. LymPro is it if the S&S is 92%plus! My thoughts were 120 mil but I'll go with 250 mil not that far fetched.... No RS is possible.....?
holeinone: Most of the pharmas doing AD clinical trials are already in the middle of doing one. When we contact them it may take a year or more before they are ready to use us. I think creating the expectation of 250 million for 2015 is reckless. It will bring disappointment eventually, The truth is 50 to 100 million revenue for 2015 would be a grand slam!!
You know folks, if Gerald announced 80 million in revenue guidance for 2015 and it was multiplied by the number 10, that would equal 800 million in market cap. With 800 million outstanding shares that would translate to $1.00 per share net present value! That would be massive!!! So, if Gerald announced 250 million for 2015, I would be so flabbergasted that I would strip down to my undies and do a dance and put it on You Tube for the world to see!! I just don't expect to hear Gerald say 250 million for 2015. I will probably wet my pants if he says 80 million because that would be huge! I'm not trying to get into a spat with watson, I'm just trying to be realistic and be fair to Gerald. It takes time to get Pharmas to switch over to us. For example, if a pharma has just started a phase 2 AD trial when we call them...they might say they'd love to use us when they start a phase 3 in a couple of years, but they can't switch tests mid stream on their current phase 2. I think this is what AMBS will face as they begin commercializing LymPro. It will be slow at first but they will consistently build. If someone has some numbers that can validate LymPro making 250 million in 2015, bring them on. I'd love to see them. Frankly, if Gerald announces 250 million for 2015, I'd do a dance in the nude and get thrown in jail! But I don't think that is going to happen.