The most important piece of information that shareholders should listen for is WHO not HOW MUCH. To put things in perspective, specific revenue figures are not so important as where they will be coming from.
2015 will be the first year that Lympro is expected to hit the market. As with most new products, if the launch works and the assay works, then the money will naturally come as the product gains traction. Perhaps we will EVENTUALLY hit the “in excess of $500MM” as GC predicted after FDA approval, but for the first year, it’s more crucial to see what companies are using the product.
GC has been hinting that Roche, J&J, etc. have all “expressed interest” in Lympro. Acceptance by a large pharma not only gives Lympro a stamp of approval, but it also leads to new opportunities. The whole process eventually snowballs. So the key points to pay attention to are what companies will be using Lympro and if there are any contracts or guarantees (very important) for Lympro that will be executed in the next several months.
The ultimate goal for 2015 is a large pharma conducting a test licensed from AMBS for other large pharmas. Just from a comparables standpoint, do you really think Lympro, purely standalone, should be valued at less than $100MM after a successful execution?
Two big hurdles right now: Lympro data and partnership. The next 2-3 month will be an even crazier ride than this whole C4CT thing. Hope you people are mentally ready.
Walter: I liked your post. However, I'm not sure why you feel the two hurdles of "data" and the "partnership" will cause us to have a volatile ride. I guess if the data is bad, of if we don't get a partner, that would be bad. But I am assuming we'll have good data and an acceptable partner.
hurdles could be both good or bad, I do think they will be positive, but you can never be too sure. I just said it'll be crazy...could be crazy good or crazy bad or both in the same day. Either way, volume is going to start picking up and I think we are going to get a lot of movement.
Not that this is super relevant to ambs, but if you think Mannkind gave up a truck load of profit you're nuts. Most companies woulda gotten 15 percent of the profit, which is typical. Mannkind got 35. That's why the upfront was measly. I'm long Mannkind and I'm more than happy with the deal, stop listening to all the people bashing