ok i bought 3000 shares yesterday at 16 15/16.
reasons:news on tidewater, slb...is out.oil commodity likely not to stay below 14-15$:opec countries will adjust production
levels. iraq tensions growing (when do we see the first bomb on that bad guys face?) winter + blizzards coming soon, for sure.
investor's pessimism at worst levels.a very beautiful chart. canadian-$ no argument.that share is at a worst scenario price. drilling
activity still strong.i'm not so convinced of the "asian argument":in my opinion japan will recover this year quite well.i'm a buyer
no, no, no...
I am not short what-so-ever! I have some put positions on Russell 2000 index or some other tech issues currently which are much more likely to make money for me...
But the oil issues are still too hot to be short yet, I am simply waiting the ratio of the inventories to the open contracts to get a bit wider (supply and demand inbalance), then to be short on the drillers.
This will happen because of two reasons, first the slowing down of the global economy, especially in Asia and China, then the excess supply from OPEC. The timing is hard, but I have a feeling that it will happen before the end of this year, in other words, even though the momentum is keeping the price elevated, I think it is not pushing it any higher, but not enough reason to go short yet.
I have all the patience of the world since this is not the only stock on my radar, but my time will come with this stock to trade in both directions.
Currently I find (and I found a couple months ago) the current levels too high, yet too risky to go short as well. I am waiting for PDS to run out of steam and cool down a bit, then it will collapse probably onto its own weight anyway...
This stock will sucker in a lot of traders on its way down with its current resilience, but I won't be one of them...
Compared with ALL other land and sea drillers, PDS is by far the cheapest both in absolute PE and its PE compared with its
growth rate(Revenues and Earnings). I listened to the conference call last month and the CEO said they could raise day rates
another 20% to merely equal what US land drillers currently charge. Perhaps this difference is partly due to exchange rates. Either
way, it looks like the lowest risk of any land driller and perhaps sea drillers as well. Lets just hope crude oil can hold above
The stock of PDS with foward looking earnings of over 3.00 per share is truly one of the few bargains left aroud. Canada has
the largest gas reserves in North America, gas markets have
been affected mostly by the warm winter weather pattern so far this year.
The inpact of the Asian turmoil, the Iraq oil for food program and the OPEC over supply of oil on U.S. gas prices should be a
non-event in the long run.