We have often asked ourselves, how will this Shfl fiasco end? There is no question it will end very badly for the long shareholders,however, short players like us should do well.
We believe that Shfl is in a tail spin death spiral, for which there is no way out.Shfl presently has crushing unpayable debt of over $100M.Next year another $150M becomes due and payable.Usually, when bond holders are dumped, they foreclose, and the company is sold for a few cents on the dollar to the Wall Street Sharks.
No one will buy Shfl, even at the present low price, because of the $250M debt. Also, no one would buy Shfl just for the debt amount of $250M, which would make the shares worthless.
In the end we see Shfl being bought by the Wall Street Sharks for about $150M. That means the shareholders would get nothing and the debtors would take about a $100M hair cut. The Sharks would then sell off the patents, and sell off Shfl as a small profitable operating company making 30 cents a share yearly profit.
The sad,sad, thing is that Shfl makes good shufflers, but has been so badly mismanaged by Yoseloff it will not survive the crushing debt.