I told someone a couple of years ago this stock was the best short on the Nasdaq...at that time even I didn't even know how great it would end....I thought it would drop no lower than 1240....but that was before of the current issues in the last 6 months.
Bottom line.....unless this company is bought...it could go to 2.40 or they could go Chapter 11 in 2009.
Look at the debt and if you study 10Q you will see that net cash is only about 24M on the amount of revenue generated in 2007 and even if they grow 15% a year all net cash in the next 3 years will barely pay debt due in 2011 and if you look at terms you will see that SM has to maintain certain levels of contract obligations or it could default terms of loan. Its simple math, no cash and net cash killed by overhead and buyouts they might have to sell off units or do another convert and who in the hell would want to do that with current debt to asset/cash ratio....this company has a book value of less than $3.
Now I know the longs are smarter than me cause they have been loading up at the $30, $25, $20, $15, $10, $9, $8 and so on. Greed has spanked those who were not focused....you can buy and buy and buy companies but eventually you have to pay the debt and generate a boat load of cash.
It seems management failed accounting 101 and shareholders...IMO
This is a sad story and why long-term investing doesn't work.
Even if they sold the assets they have it wouldn't pay off debt...and now if we stay in a recession until 2009 their main customers will pull back and try to make money on what they have on the floor....its not really the wealthy who play the tables and support the casino's....its the middle class and those looking for money to buy food. Not to mention the fad of Texas holdem, etc will fall off just like everything that runs in cycles.
Sometimes taking a loss is smarter than pumping money in a wounded pig