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AT&T, Inc. Message Board

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  • wareham2620 wareham2620 Jul 10, 2008 3:51 PM Flag

    will t stock pass up vz in share price?

    As for VZ :

    Jul 08, 2008 Verizon Communications (VZ): Expect solid 2Q, with minimal
    risks to 2008 earnings outlook
    NEWS: We expect VZ 2Q results to be in line to above GS/consensus ests, with very
    little risk to 2008 consensus estimates through this earnings season.
    ANALYSIS: Wireless: Expect another strong quarter, with over 1.4 mn net adds.
    Although our channel checks indicate an increase in handset subsidies, we still believe
    VZ has a good chance to be above the high end of the long-term 43%-45% EBITDA
    margin targets in 2Q specifically. The subsidies are disproportionate to higher end
    phones ($150 Voyager), which drives the data revenue opportunity and supports ARPU
    performance. Enterprise: Expect minimal economic impacts. We believe order delays
    have surfaced, especially in financials, but should not meaningfully impact trend rates.
    Cable contract disconnects ($50 mn per quarter) still impact yoy revenue trends, but the
    sequential impact should be negligible. Consumer wireline: Weak trends expected to
    continue, with no relief on access line metrics. We expect DSL to possibly turn
    negative this quarter, owing to seasonality and migration to FiOS. On FiOS metrics,
    promotional activity (free TV) that supported 1Q results are not expected to provide the
    same support to 2Q, hence we expect a slight downtick in video/data adds. On wireline
    margins, we expect a slight sequential uptick, due to lower promotional activity, with
    more margin improvement expected in 2H2008. Corporate: A lower tax rate could offer
    additional earnings support.
    IMPLICATIONS: We believe there is little risk of negative earnings revisions post 2Q
    for VZ. Industry impacts: Wireless – Industry porting ratios still relatively constant, but
    absolute ports trending down, which is positive for Sprint, which has negative port
    relationships with other carriers. Wireline – weak trends continue with pressure on
    access lines and broadband.
    The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. does and seeks to do

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