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AT&T, Inc. Message Board

  • DowDanny DowDanny Dec 15, 1997 7:17 PM Flag

    Cool board

    This has got to be one of the most interesting boards, lot's of info and thinking going on here. TA, in particular, has me a bit scared about my T stock... wouldn't want to put in a stop-loss (and lose my stock on a few minutes of downturn) but I am definitely going to watch more closely and think about "pocketing the gains" if this retreats back to 50. can always buy back on the bounce, when it happens.

    Board is a big improvement over "This stuck sucks, short it" and
    "It'll be 100 in a month, buy buy buy" found on the other stocks that I have been following. {For the lowest of low, check the Gateway 2000 (GTW) board. Pitiful}

    Thanks for the followable arguments and (generally) high quality on both sides of the equations !

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    • A little cavalier with "a couple of years ago", how time flys when your having fun...actually bought IBM at 43 1/4 on 7/22/93.

    • Encore...encore!! Couldn't agree with you more. T reminds me of IBM a couple of years ago when we bought in at 43 (before the 2 for 1 split). Wish I could say we held on to "Big Blue" but we didn't....but will hold on to T for sure.

    • NJFred

      WCOM has been a tremendous performer, but as a momentum stock more than anything else. We all know what happens to momentum stocks when the momentum dissipates. I have great admiration for Bernie as well, but today, I view cash as king, and T has alot of it, which provides flexibility and allows for quick action.

      If WCOM stock sags in the coming months, Bernie's consolidation strategy will be hampered as well. I am not saying this will happen, but the risk seems greater to me. T has been bloodied in the press (rightfully so) for the last couple of years. This stock is a turnaround play if there ever was one. People who really dog this stock need to keep a few simple points in mind (and I mean simple in that this is obviously not brain surgery)

      1. The AT&T franchise and the value that has worldwide. I have experienced what happens in some countries. Its AT&T or nothing as far as making long distance calls. So there I sat with my Sprint/MCI card, unable to call home.

      2. The cash position. This company has alot of rationalization going on which should increase the cash position (ie. sale of credit card and financing operations) and allow for more flexible decision making.

      3. New Blood. Armstrong over Allen? Its a no brainer. Any movement which rids the company of Allen has to be viewed as positive. I mean, that guy destroyed more shareholder value and jobs than anybody in the history of corporate America. If there were a prison for poor governance, Allen and the entire BOD would be there today.

      These are some obviously non technical analysis of the situation. I am sure many will disagree, and we will see what happens, but sometimes the simplest answer is the correct one. As a turnaround play, I like this stock.

    • RFTech:

      I am very positive on AT&T, and also agree with your assessment that T, 5-6 months ago, was very comparable to IBM in the early '90's. Ironically, I also bought Apple at the bargain price (Then!) of $35 a share...ouch! So I see your point about the similiarities. I sure hope that T performs over the next 3-4 years like IBM has for me since I bought it. Approximately 300% return over 5 years...

      I also agree with your cautions about WCOM and the cash position that they might have after the MCI merger. I have a lot of
      admiration for WCOM as an acquirer (using their own equity as currency), but I also wonder about their abilities to operationalize
      their acquisitions. And it doesn't look like Bernie believes in leaving existing management in place to continue doing what those
      companies do best...Quite frankly, no matter how astute their purchases have been, I can't see this stock at its current P/E ratio. I,
      too, have seen some of the over-inflated balloons get a slight pin-prick and then totally deflate. Then, if you don't have the
      ability to execute or operationalize everything, you have no chance to recover and all those shareholders who believed that the
      magic would continue forever are devastated. (Isn't it amazing how investors get locked into the belief that the market will
      ALWAYS keep going up? Especially those investors who've entered the market in the last 5 years, who've never seen a true bear
      market, where totally illogical selling takes place...) In classical investment theory, that's referred to as "the greater fool
      theory". "There's always going to be a greater fool than I who will gladly pay more for this dog than I paid for it!" I'm afraid that
      many WCOM investors may get a taste of reality someday, when the market demands execution against some objective other than
      acquisition.

      NJFred

    • I see that I have not had a reply to my post that addressed the real facts of AT&Ts amount of cash on hand, and WCOMs after the merger goes though therfore lack of. Nor did I have any comment about the potential AT&T-@Home deal that would give AT&T a big leg up on WCOMs high speed internet offerings, and also people dont seem to realise that AT&T is both upgradeing its network and rolling out its own internet backbone.
      While I do agree that AT&T still needs to get its house in order somewhat, I still see alot of similarities betweeen what people said about IBM in 93 and what people say about AT&T now(ie dinosaur, too big etc.), and my Apple compareison to Worldcom is valid for the fact that Apple in 93 was the buzz stock in 93 mutch like WCOM is now. People seem to not realise that WCOM has precious little cash on hand, and it will be very cash poor especially after the MCI-WCOM merger.
      I think that AT&T is a excellent long term stock, while WCOM will be shakey after the merger. Go on beliveing the analysts, they are always right:), like they were about Apple, Loral and many others. AT&T has and will have the cash on hand to make things happen, WCOM will not.

    • comparing Worldcom to Apple is a bad comparision.
      Comparing AT&T to IBM is Prosposterous.

      There are good comparisons and bad comparisons.

      When in a debate or giving a speech people use many tactics
      and compaison is one of them. Usually when this tactic is used
      it is a bad comparison. You cannot compare either of the two
      companies to Apple or IBM. What is wrong with you. You sound
      like one of those poeple talking about some penny stock screaming
      it's the next Microsoft. How many times have we heard that one?
      Now your TRYING to say that AT&T is the next IBM. This kind
      of Analyisis is wrong and should be avoided at all cost.

      AT&T is not the next IBM.
      Worldcom is not the next Apple.

      If you want to believe it is, fine. But your only fooling yourself. Any investor that has been around for a short while
      has heard all the hype about the next IBM or the next Microsoft.

      You are not fooling anyone.

      respectfully,

      WCOM

    • When you put in a "stop" you have already anticipated the downturn that you wish to tolerate. You certainly should give the stock room to move but ask yourself at what point you want out. That is the "stop" price. In your case, 50 would be a reasonable stop since you have said that you would sell at that price.

      Regardless of what others would tell you, I have never had a stop order fail to execute at the stop price. I readily admit that I haven't been involved with a stock that dropped 30% in one day. Of course, I don't consider that luck.


 
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