Well from a technical point of view using Fibonocci analysis, COW has retraced 78.6% of the August all time low to the high in April, and signals an entry point right here. Having said that I bought some call options today.
Atheone, looks to me as though you may have a trade will work. Now, let's see if this one has legs. I know what I'll be doing on the 4th of July and I'm betting that they'll be featuring a lot of BBQ and grill cuts over the next few weeks. Memorial Day ain't no slouch for grill'n and picnics, either. Good hunting.
If you pride yourself on doing things based on reason; it looks to me that you have found a good reason for being long the COW! Two hookers, two lookers, four hang-downs and a switch-about... Uncle Rufus' definition of a cow.
Technicals on COW haven't turned but are now flashing 'oversold', it's a condition that won't probably turn until the dollar does. Would I buy the buck? Not just no, but HELL-NO! Adding on a washout can't be stupid, unless short intrest rises without corresponding offsets. I believe that you are close to bottoming.. and it may be this very week. Can't make crystal ball predictions but this is one of the trendiest markets ever conceived. These guys like to run the train right to the end of the line. Good luck to us bottom fishers. Dad told me not to add to a losing position and I'm too old to think that dad wasn't smart.