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Smith Micro Software Inc. Message Board

  • coldpizza22 coldpizza22 Feb 25, 2011 10:44 AM Flag

    If Bill Hadn't F- up Guidance

    SM would be trading at $20 today

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • If If If If the queen had balls she'd be king.

    • Are you kidding?...He has as much credibility as Gator Hater.

    • I'm not so sure about that.
      Today's action is only a retrace of what we saw last week and IMO isn't the start of of renewed climb.
      Simplistically, if Bill and Company hadn't warned, the price would be $18 or so, not $20 as the $17 previous price high was the result of the the $30 - $35M being priced in. When they corrected their guidance to half that, it took us down roughly half $17.
      Sure it may have hit $20 in a spike, but it wouldn't have stayed their. For us to have a sustained move beyond $10, it will take several quarters of sustained EPS growth, not just hopeful prognostications

    • No, it would be selling for a little above what it is now, not double.

      Simplistically, the market had priced in 2x sales (=~2x PPS) now the guidance is for 1/2 that and hence 1/2 the PPS. Add in the notion that it appears Bill and Company don't seem to know what their market is, and you have this crash to below $10.
      Getting to a sustained $20 was always going to take something more than just a single good quarter, it was going to take confirmation that the good quarters were going to continue and the EPS was truly going to ramp up. All of this is now on hold. The price moved up nicely today, but it didn't move up much despite the relatively high volume. Pretty obvious lots of folks were waiting for news before they got out. I'd say we are going to stayat below $10 for a while (blips are possible of course), but a real ramp won't begin for another couple of quarters.

      • 1 Reply to storyteller216
      • I think your dead wrong

        The stock would of been trading on FY11 numbers and since they posted $0.98 proforma on just over $130M with average opX margins for the year just under 30% for Fy10. Smith at Mid point of old FY11 $155M would of done $1.20 to $1.30 EPS x 18X = $21 to $23 stock price. opX margins would be expanding closer to 35% and given their sector and expanding sales they deserve a concervative multiple of 18X EPS.

        We could of gotten a spike today based on old FY11 number towards $18/$19 maybe not $20.

        joe

    • gilbert_the_snotty_alien gilbert_the_snotty_alien Feb 25, 2011 10:51 AM Flag

      and if Bill wasn't an bumbling, bald-headed, turtleneck-wearing, under-achieving, control freak who stubbornly refuses to hand over the reins to a real CEO, it might be trading at $21.

 
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