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Temecula Valley Bancorp Inc. Message Board

  • pvbud pvbud Feb 2, 2007 9:41 AM Flag

    TMCV - SDbanker

    Hola, amigo,

    If one had invested $10k in TMCV on January 2, 2003, it would have been worth $36,143 as of December 30, 2006. That's 260 percent increase in four years, or Yipee!!, 65 percent per year.

    Do you see anything, or any reason why TMCV is not attractive at current prices?? I have a full investment quota in TMCV, which I have held for more than five years, but I'm thinking...is the ratchet still working?
    What do you think? Good wishes..
    PV

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    • Buenos Dias, PV,
      By the way, what part of Mexico are you in? I spend a fair amount of time in the San Felipe and Rosarito Beach area.

      I'm on board with you in that it has been a great run with TMCV over the past 3-5 years. The price per share is holding steady at $22.50 to $23.00. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's about 13-14x trailing earnings. There is still some room for price appreciation.

      There is something to note with this bank....It is in kind of a state of transition as it is reaching out into areas of lending/finance that true community banks don't typically get involved in. The bank appears to be "morphing" into more of a Large Regional institution, with new divisions, products and directions being introduced. The landscape of the bank is changing, so I expect to see more "growing pains" in early/mid 2007 before things get back to normal.

      This is a real-estate heavy institution, and with the SoCal and National realty markets on the decline (some areas worse than others), this bank may have some challenges with it's portfolio. But they aren't the only banks out there with CRE-laden portfolio's. 2007 is going to be a real "watch and see" year for this bank. If they get through relatively unscathed with it's new directions (i.e. increased overhead and start-up costs) and soft real estate markets, then I predict greater things for the years ahead. But I give this bank 2-3 years before it sells as the CEO/President likely has a short horizon towards retirement. I'm holding long. Hope that the sun is shining on your beach.....SDbanker

      • 2 Replies to sdbanker2003
      • SD, we're here in Puerto Vallarta where is been a bit on the cool at about 74 - 76F daytime. Nevertheless, the doors are open most of the time. In the long past we spend time on the Baja before the road was built, but not in San Felipe. During those days there was only one resort south of La Paz that I recall and it was near the tip of the peninsula. I believe it was Fenesterre?

        I agree that TMCV must have a load of real estate mortgages, but management has so far proved that they understand this business well and,hopefully, they are well protected. As I compare investment opportunities, I have not seen anything in the community banking arena that looks superior to TMCV. If interest rates continue upward, and I believe they will if the US is to attract capital, I imagine there will be a serious consolidation of the newer, less seasoned banks, or some may face dissolution by the office of Thift Supervision.

        Yes, I agree with you that the employed Founders of the bank may retire in a few years. If that is the executive attitude , it could happen at any time an attractive offer is floated to TMCV. One of my Montana favorites is expected to consolidate this month with US Bank. I'm disappointed b/c it's a great dividend producer, but the share ratio is not too bad and US Bank is far stronger financially...so what do I know? While I have a full position at TMCV, I'm tempted.

        I believe TMCV has a strong community bank competitor. Do you have any insight about their operations, SD?

        pv, in Mexico

      • SD, we're here in Puerto Vallarta where is been a bit on the cool at about 74 - 76F daytime. Nevertheless, the doors are open most of the time. In the long past we spend time on the Baja before the road was built, but not in San Felipe. During those days there was only one resort south of La Paz that I recall and it was near the tip of the peninsula.

        I agree that TMCV must have a load of real estate mortgages, but management has so far proved that they understand this business well and,hopefully, they are well protected. As I compare investment opportunities, I have not seen anything in the community banking arena that looks superior to TMCV. If interests rates continue upward, and I believe they will, I imagine there will be a serious consolidation of the newer, less seasoned banks, or some may face dissolution by the office of Thift Supervision.

        Yes, I agree with you that the employed Founders of the bank may retire in a few years. If that is the executive attitude , it could happen at any time an attractive offer is floated to TMCV. One of my Montana favorites is expected to consolidate this month with US Bank. I'm disappointed b/c it's a great dividend producer, but the share ratio is not too bad and US Bank is far stronger financially...so what do I know? While I have a full position at TMCV, I'm tempted.

        I believe TMCV has a strong community bank competitor. Do you have any insight about their operations, SD?

        pv, in Mexico

 
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