The Bottom Line: Elements of progress in developing MultiStem are not as visible … until FY14 and should not be measured by a “short” yardstick of catalysts to the near term quarters. The conference call mentioned partnerships but no definitions were available as multiple opportunities exist – why get caught in a forecast that never happens. The SBIR $2.8 M grant will not be accessible until Q1-Q2/14 for an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) trial based on their P1 data. ATHX is currently evaluating MultiStem(R) in 2 P2 clinical trials, in ulcerative colitis and ischemic stroke. I have been there on stroke which is … a “black hole” of many and past failures but … the promise and hope abounds that their on target. Obesity and schizophrenia are still preclinical asserts that could render more value i.e. partnering but are still preliminary.
The Aspire ATM utilization was high at $5.8 M high as was in Q1/13 at $2 M.
The technical and resistance levels of ATHX are strong … but post earnings in this Q2 many reporting RegMed sector companies have experienced serious downward spirals; ATHX should not experience the same spiral.
In these fluctuating and volatile times a margin of safety is simply the distance between making development predictions come true and more than the … needs of those predictions to come through. We can’t predict the future but ATHX needs to define the probabilities of outcomes to actual terms, as the margins of reality are not perceived by “these” development categories … giving too much room for interpretation – ATHX needs to communicate more!
ATHX closed at $1.69 up $0.02 or +1.2% with a .... $2.25 - $2.50 target by year end. In a recent meeting in NYC, it was reported that Aspire was the largest shareholder of ATHX – sooner or later they always sell – they’re not long term investors.
Ranked a … BUY believing ATHX has the “bridge” with the “bollard” secured!