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Ultrapetrol (Bahamas) Ltd. Message Board

  • laura_axeen laura_axeen Oct 19, 2011 11:13 PM Flag

    Really?

    Come on...there is nothing of substance in payables...or whatever anyone is worried about. Payables...what they owe in the next 12 months.....Offshore supply vessels still not yet here and being manufactured for 2012 delivery? Payables....compared to same quarter last year? Offshore supply ships yet to come that they have not yet taken a loan out on using its collateral to create cashflow? These ships they ordered several years ago are worth more than this company paid for them....as well as the current ones they have now working for them creating a constant revenue stream. Plus now..creating saftey..by not putting them all in Brazil. Payables can also be for materials to build future barges.

    The only thing to look at here is what they owe and what they own. They own a barge manufacturing company that earns over 250,000 per barge when they are sold or an asset value of close to 1 mil. per barge if the keep it for their own use. Times that by the potential of over 100 barges per year.

    Their assets are worth 3 time the current stock price...and assets unlike all other shipping company assets...much more value and not decreasing more than what is owed. Capesize, panamaz, etc... almost all other shipping companies have asset values decreasing more than what is owed.

    I am a long, long stock holder and will be rewarded soon enough for me. Not a stock to trade....a stock to own!

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    • Are we sure they prepaid the entire $19.3 million being claimed as damages? That is a lot of money for a company this size to be prepaying anyone other than a long standing, well trusted business partner.

    • "One of our subsidiaries in the River Business, UABL Paraguay S.A., is a claimant against Transbarge S.A. in an arbitration proceeding where we claim damages for non performance under a transportation contract. The arbitration process is now practically completed lacking only final allegations and the arbitration award which is expected prior to the end of the year. It has been agreed that both parties carry their legal costs regardless of arbitration results and the total amount claimed by us from Transbarge S.A. is $19.3 million excluding interests and before deducting legal fees and taxes, if any. The final amount to be awarded, if any, is however uncertain."

      http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1062781/000091957411004464/d1219372_6-k.htm

      Transbarge is a subsidiary of:

      http://google.brand.edgar-online.com/EFX_dll/EDGARpro.dll?FetchFilingHtmlSection1?SectionID=7886661-1266768-1290625&SessionID=FgeqHj8AoLfvJA7

    • Interesting, thanks.

      It is what it is, and not especially anything they can change now.

    • I talked to the company. You are free to do the same. I believe ULTR contracted with Transbarge for some service. They prepaid under their contract but Transbarge never delivered the goods so to speak. So they had to hire someone to do the work or send the supplies or whatever service Transbarge performed. They are suing Transbarge for payment but maybe this company is bankrupt because ULTR doesn't think they will ever see a dime of this $19.3M. If that is the case that is pretty understandable, but no details were provided. Maybe they will shed some additional light on it this quarter.

    • I think DaBreeze is worried about $19 million in receivables. If someone owes ULTR $19 million, and ULTR isn't forthcoming about when that amount will be paid to ULTR, then you bet the market will continue to punish ULTR.

      ULTR would have to sell a hell of a lot of barges to make up for a loss in receivables of $19 million. Or they'd have to run that North Sea PSV for over two years just to make up the revenue (never mind the loss in profit).

      ULTR doesn't explain why the PSVs are inexcusably overdue, and they don't explain what they are doing about collecting $19 million in revenue... the only choice the market has in such a vacuum is to discount the stock, because the more the company obfuscates, the more believable rumors become. The result is a company that is trading, according to Laura, at 1/3 book value.

      You want to talk substance? The current reality is they have one of the highest debt levels in the industry, they are not -- and never have been -- forthcoming about the cause of their new ship delivery delays, they are carrying a mysterious $19 million on their books, and their share price has fallen from over $7 to under $3 in less than a year. That's substantial.

      But that's OK... we'll just wait for the next conference call, 98% of which will be identical to the last 4 conference calls (USDA soybean harvest projections, a geography lesson on the Hidrovia region, potential demand by Petrobras for equipment, a focus on EBITDA projections to the utter exclusion of a target date for positive EPS, a note on the earnings hit for positioning the PSV in the North Sea [like the recent quarter when they took a hit for repositioning a PSV from North Sea to Brazil], two maybe three questions from analysts, and time's up gotta go we'll be in touch next year). Odd. Usually a company that has lost over half of its market capitalization would do everything -- and I mean everything -- it could to reassure investors. Not these guys. Can't be bothered.

      Has anyone seen any data about insider open market share purchases? No? Really? At these levels? Wow, they haven't bought into their own story. So why should anyone else?

      • 1 Reply to ketchdeale
      • Thank you ketch. Yeah Laura you need to think a little more about the nitty gritty and less about the "big picture." If they can't generate positive cash flow from operations then they will eventually be out of business.
        The $19M receivable is a big deal. The scary thing is that they don't even have it on their balance sheet because they say collection is so doubtful. That is unacceptable.
        There is nothing they can really do about the delayed PSVs. Don't even expect the Indians to get something done on time. It will never happen. You literally need to scream in their face (typically) before they do what you ask.
        As for stock ownership - these guys already own a ton of stock. They are the #2 shareholder - listed under "Inversiones Los Avellanos."
        I would just like to see some progress on cash flow generation. So far I have seen nothing. I'm looking forward to the Q3 earnings release. I'm sure that dope from Jefferies will ask more softball questions on the conference call.

 
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