This thing indeed looks like a no brainier - earnings will continue to be somewhat seasonal but pricing increases, normalized /better volume; increased capacity at the boat yard, better mgmt with southern overlooking, f/x in the st, more mature comps that do trade at ( beyond PE comps,other metrics like ev/ ebitda, multiples of book) higher multiples, and ... Lets not forget very positive secular trends toward more river traffic ( as opposed to truck/ rail - look at mix in more developed mkts) and general growth of exports in the region, petrobras new oil fields in the region, extended debt maturities...... This thing looks great. It trades thin and will bounce around but some very sophisticated institutional investors own ...... This is one to hold. One can model $1 in eps power in several years..... And don't forget that smaller competitors will be mandated to go to double hulled etc....ULTR already there
Why did southern cross leave a stub if the case is so compelling ? Great q..... Probably to keep a "mark" out there and make it easier to raise public$ in the future...
I'm long 100k shares.....listen to the names of people on the conference calls then google...
Out of philosophy I never post to these kinds of boards in part because I've been prohibited as a Wall Street participant for the last 15 years but now I can so I thought I'd add my 2c. To be fair a very sophisticated friend on the street first highlighted this to me
Oh yes. The equity will be worth $1.7B at that point with no material change in operations...LOLOLOL. You forget that if the crop sucks and the river levels are down this company sucks wind BIGTIME...it happens every few years.
It's also likely to a real-time market reference point to ease sources of disagreement between Southern Cross and the Menendez-Ross Family concerning any other type of financing (to inject into a model etc.) and/or give the family a market source of liquidity as this thing plays out.
BTW I think there are a bunch of people who agree with everything you have said BTW.