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Cubic Energy Inc. Message Board

  • rrb1981 rrb1981 Jan 30, 2011 1:20 PM Flag

    Production

    As I posted previously, I built a spreadsheet tracking QBC's daily production using the production values given in QBC's presentations and reports over the past year. While these are just snapshot data points, it does give a sense of the stability of the production and cash flows.

    If you take the daily production values of the wells listed in the November '10 presentation and multiply by the respective working interests, you get the 2326 mcf/d figure that they mention. Now if you take the 3 most recent wells, and for all practical purposes, the Fisher doesn't really move the needle because of the fractional working interest, so taking the other 2 wells and multiplying the IP by say 20% (I am essentially assuming an 80% decline in year 1), I end up with 1500 mcf/d of production. This is what I would call the more long term stable part of the curve, though there is still quite a bit of decline in years 2,3,4 before really getting flat.

    I have also looked at the decline of the other wells using the March '10 data, the April '10 data, August '10 data and October '10 data. What I see is that QBC's production is stable. Some of the wells are still in the steep decline region, but others are out of it and as new wells are brought on, they serve to offset the declines and boost production. Our overall decline rate is pretty steady as it appears we are bringing on wells at a measured pace.

    Does anyone know if QBC has mentioned how many wells they expect to be drilled in '11? I suspect we might get more color on the earnings release and presentation.

    By my estimates, if they can bring on 6 wells a year and have a substantial working interest stake of say 30%, QBC stands to really accelerate production and continue to prove up acreage and reserves.

    Does anyone have any info "Western D-H1" and the "Beauregard 21H"?

    Also, whatever happened to the "Thomas 36-1" or was it 32-1?

    Based on November's production data coupled with the 3 recent results, our current daily production is probably close to 4000-5000 mcf/d.

    Not bad for a micro cap E&P with little debt, a drilling credit, little debt and low overhead.

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