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EDAP TMS SA Message Board

  • ulysseinvest ulysseinvest Sep 14, 2006 1:16 AM Flag

    proteinbot > Valuation

    Hi there proteinbot,

    > Just for the record, I don't share your unbridled enthusiasm about this company (not yet anyway).

    Sure - cool. Not sure I understand though where you worries are (I mean concrete stuff - not the kind of stuff mnova or mablack write about).

    As far as I'm concerned:

    1. The company is loaded with new cash - they could stop any commercial activity today and still survive for a while.
    2. New investors barged in recently (last month?) and dissected the numbers inside out and figured 7.60$ was worth them joining the company while investing 7.5 MM USD.
    3. Stock markets around the world dropped following oil issues Middle-East potential crisis, etc - but all in all the companies remain the same (better buying for your dollar).
    4. If you understand HIFU as a technology (ask doctors if you need) you'll figure we've just finally (this year) opened up a serious sales window. Don't look backwards for growth - past 10 years were all invested in research. It's all about to happen now.
    5. Aging men, food habits, less lung cancers - prostate cancer is increasing dramatically and men are living healthier and longer - heck, ask any urologist near you, don't listen to me.
    6. Something tells me men won't want to spend 3 weeks in a bed with their belly opened up like a cesarean or worse risk partial or complete hair loss for a while due to heavy radiation treatments.
    6. Brand new EDAP management walked in some 24 months ago - they turned a 1.50$ company into a 3.00$ in less than 12 months, then turned the 3.00$ per share company into a 7.00$ per share in 12 months (with peaks at 21$!!!).
    7. Upcoming events are known and well identifiable - more and more reimbursement in France and other countries in Europe and around the world, growth of anywhere between 8 and 12% a quarter with their new pay-per-treatment business model, or the equivalent of 40 to 46% a year (!!!), and business in the US still hasn't started yet... so all pointers suggest there's still huge road ahead.

    Anyway - do your own research. Mine suggests things should be going nowhere but up in the upcoming 18-36 months.

    Good luck,

    Ulysse

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    • Yes, HIFU is a very feasible and mature technology. There are actually company actually selling HIFU equipment. Also some hospitle actually using this technology to cure patients already. For example, CMED. China has the worst environment on earth. Chinese people rely on this technology to cure their cancer effectively and economically. If you are the FAN of this technology, might as well invest your hard earn money on company actually making money on HIFU. By the way, CMED is also seeking FDA approval. You know what is going to happen if CMED got approval ahead of EDAP.

      • 2 Replies to wtuanmu_tw
      • It also looks like the first indication CMED will apply for is panreatic cancer. I'm not sure about this but if you look at the web site, they are evaluating animal studies on the pancreas for future IDE FDA studies. Probably a smart move since the prostate market is already represented. The only problem with pancreatic cancer is that it spreads fast and by the time you find it you have a small window to treat it successfully. I would have liked them to start with breast cancer since there is more of them and you have more time to work with it since most women check for it regularly and catch it early.

      • I have been in contact with the management of CMED and believe, me they have not even begun the FDA process yet. First they have to get their manufacturing facilty to FDA specifications and certified before they can start the process and that is where they are at the moment.

    • "The company is loaded with new cash - they could stop any commercial activity today and still survive for a while."

      Yes, they have a lot of cash due to a secondary that dropped the share price significantly.

      "If you understand HIFU as a technology (ask doctors if you need) you'll figure we've just finally (this year) opened up a serious sales window. Don't look backwards for growth - past 10 years were all invested in research. It's all about to happen now."

      I think I have a good handle on the technology and it is merely OK at this point. I do not think anything good will occur until it is recognized by the FDA and the insurance carriers. Until then it remains an expensive experimental procedure. AND, more importantly, an experiment in losing money (see the trends since it peaked at $21-22).

      "Aging men, food habits, less lung cancers - prostate cancer is increasing dramatically and men are living healthier and longer - heck, ask any urologist near you, don't listen to me."

      There is no evidence that prostate cancer is increasing "dramatically". The more likely explanation is earlier detection has increased the numbers rather than some systemic increase in total cases.

      "Something tells me men won't want to spend 3 weeks in a bed with their belly opened up like a cesarean..."

      You should be a little more conversant in the radical prostatectomy field. The open procedure you are referring to is being rapidly replaced by the DaVinci robotic procedure. I HAD THE DAVINCI IN NOVEMBER, SO IF YOU WANT SOME INSIDER INFORMATION I MAY BE ABLE TO LEND A HAND. What you have described is more scare tactics than fact. Even with an open procedure, the hospital stay is less than 3 days (frequently overnight only) and the patient is up walking ON THE SAME DAY AS SURGERY in most cases. I was walking 3-5 miles a day within 12 days of the surgery. So, please be a little more accurate with your statements.

      "Anyway - do your own research..."

      Why does it seem that you assume that I haven't done a significant amount of research in this area? I have done my research from the viewpoint of a patient AND an investor. My choice was for a radical using the DaVinci and I would NOT have EVER chosen HIFU. And yes, I would have been an excellent candidate based on PSA, staging, age, etc. I still would not have opted for HIFU. Why? I don't believe that the efficacy is as good as radical. This is about life and death and not about other side effects. I made my choice and I am damned happy about it.

      Good night, good luck and good investing to all.

 
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