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Varian Medical Systems, Inc. Message Board

  • whymechi whymechi Apr 26, 2007 9:05 AM Flag

    Time to get in?

    Sorry to all you longs about last night's news. But I know this company as a former competitor and I can tell you that VAR is the class to the industry - without question. Best products with lion's share of market and no new competitors on the horizon(that I know of). They attract the best and brightest people and cancer IMHO is a growth industry (no pun intended).

    I have to believe that this dissapointment is temporary. They have said that deals are getting larger and more complex thus taking longer to close. This is true in the Medical Cap. Equipment market everywhere. I don't understand the lowered outlook though.

    I am thinking that this drop might be a chance to get in for a long term hold. Not the proverbial falling knife. But what do I know?

    Sorry to say it but I'm hoping for a big hit today so I can join you in your temporary misery.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • I'm buying 1000 shrs. as soon as William
      Silverstein loans me the $42000 for the buy.
      I told him I was good for it - and I
      want to get it while its on sale

    • I think so.

      I will take a small "interest" this coming week then
      watch what happens in the following week or two.

      Normally, I like to buy in three or four smaller pieces.

      I felt $50 was too rich for me but at $41 it is tempting.

      Best to All,
      Jack

    • I haven't posted in a while. Nice to see a few new or relatively new posters that make sense.
      After the disappointing Q1 earnings guidance back in January I thought that the stock wouldn't make any significant headway (above 60) until at least the Q3 earnings release in July. Now it looks like that is further delayed until at least Q4 earnings release with hopefully positive guidance this coming October. I can't see the stock doing much for at least the next 6 months.
      I have been in the stock for over 25 years and have ridden out these rough patches before. I believe the fundamentals still look good with an increase use for radiotherapy going forward and further expansion of proton therapy. I don't know too many stocks that go straight up with no bumps in the road along the way. My overall annualized return has been enormous by holding the stock for the long haul. I know very few investors that have the patience I do, most think long term is 1 year. I still think this is one stock you can buy and forget about. It has been and will continue to be a great core holding. If you don't have any patience I wouldn't be in a big hurry to jump into the stock.

      This board is really messed up with Delfino really happy and posting away with the stock down. Funny how Delfino was predicting $41 a few months ago, looks like he nailed it. Stock must be near a bottom because he only is talking about $40 now. What's will all the investment newsletter postings? Could it be Delfino once again trying unsuccessfully to make some money?

      I noticed on 4/26 S&P downgraded the stock from 5 stars to 3 stars with a 12 month target reduced to $48 from $58.

      One last comment. Our CFO Elisha Finney is going to have to adjust her option trigger currently set at $50. Poor thing hasn't seen $50 for a while; she got to within a $1 of $50 around 10 days ago, oh well. She is missing some great extravagant spring shopping at Neiman Marcus in Palo Alto.

      Good luck everyone (except Delfino)

      • 1 Reply to jimxyz2
      • >I can't see the stock doing much for at least the next 6 months.<

        I'm most curious what you'd consider "much". There have been multiple moves up & down of over 8% and the current IMHO overreaction to the projections even while the underlying news & numbers are good if not excellent. The biggest moves up have come after the big moves down. I don't see one period of 3 months where the stock simply "waited" for the next qrtly report - its been up&dn&up&dn and my bet is that the next leg is up as the current one has most certainly been down.

        More specifically my bet is that the PPS will start drifting upward soon and then regain momentum toward 46 or better.

        There are now less shares and 10% more earnings than only a year ago - yet about 12 months back the price per share was often over 50. Yes, there is weakness in the U.S. oncology division (?) but I think the company logic that the current buyers need more handholding for longer period seems right versus the early adopters. They are also buying more software also which is higher margin and giving them yet more market leverage over the competition....

        That's what I love about this company - they are in such a great position to keep growing into a growing & stable sector. Yes there will be bumps and lumps but I cannot think of a better company in a better position in a better sector.

        Just talked myself into backing up the mini-van again next week.

        Thunk

    • Welcome aboard! I've been in and out of this one for years and consider it my best company I know overall when I can get in low enough. ALready this year I loaded up pretty good around 45 and exited a few days later at 47 - but was hoping to get back in. This time around I was a bit early but with today's purchase will get average down to 44 - and I really could not feel much more comfortable with a world class company selling into the world market. Then there is the really unique "kicker" of what seems like an exceptional counterbalance to a terrorist attack - their truck/luggage/container processing units. (They've sold 500 of this already.)

      I've been concerned about a big reversal in the market and now I feel like I'm positioned better for the wind changes ahead.

      One more thing:: I read the MorningStar reports very carefully and it comforts me that they see things pretty much inline with how I see them.

      • 1 Reply to callmethunk
      • Thank you for your warm welcome aboard but I'm not quite on the boat yet. I am standing on the gangplank waiting for the downgrades that are most certainly comming - always reliably after the fact. I expect to jump on closer to 40.

        I was unaware of the luggage x-ray business but I like to hear it.

        The comments about underperforming S&P are a concern but when you are down this far you don't have to meet S&P performance to have a good year. Also, the fact that Cramer is bad mouthing VAR is encouraging and off sets this issue IMHO.

 
VAR
80.28-0.61(-0.75%)Apr 17 4:01 PMEDT

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