HMA Malaise - This is my first post to HMA. Your
post is an outstanding signal. It gives me even more
confidence that my being long in HMA is the right place to
be. First, AOL is $150 per share. Their "rent" check
is only expected to be .34 cents this year. Next
year it is projected at only .51 cents. HMA's "rent"
check is projected at .65 this year and .79 next.
Stocks like HMA which have been beaten down and float
nowhere for a while have a habit of snapping back. When
I'm not sure but I know it will. As Peter Lynch
stated so well as one of his 20 Golden Rules in Beating
the Street - "Over the past 3 decades the stock
market has come to be dominated by a herd of
professional investors. Contrary to popular belief, this makes
it easier for the amateur investor. You can beat the
market by ignoring the herd." Well, the 'herd' is in AOL
right now. Bye Bye and have fun with the herd! I'm
Also - last night's national news had
a story that both social security and
medicaid/medicare will be solvent for 7 more years than expected -
until 2015 I believe is what they said.
AS I Posted 2 months ago here,
analyze & research GUT feelings for
when the earnings
are on track as they have been, (.01 below est. )
does not negate the value of the company. The recent
stock price devaluation is temporary. Management is
doing their job acquiring future earnings increases as
the "street" $$ flows elsewhere. Hma will draw their
attention again, but the stock price rise will be quick &
decisive and doubters will miss the gain. You have to put
$$ where your mind is not your heart, logical
does not come from emotions. The "analysts" take the
SAFE route & influence the emotional stock price, only
after the logical value has becomes self evident.
Roller coasters & elevators are the gravity to stock
prices, true value is tainted by these forces.
MYOP, take it ,leave it, profit from
Optimistic analysis using Est. 5yr. EPS Growth Rate of 26.9
Price Zones Buy $ 14 to $ 22 Maybe $ 22 to $
31 Sell $ 31 to $ 39
Potential Annual Total
Return 17.1 %
Potential 5yr. Price appreciation -
simple 120.2 %
Relative Value 1.41 Projected
Relative Value .89
Upside Downside Ratio (Potential
Gain vs. Risk of Loss) = 6.1 to 1
analysis using Est. 5yr. EPS Growth Rate of 20 %
Zones Buy $ 14 to $ 19 Maybe $ 19 to $ 24 Sell $ 24 to
Potential Annual Total Return 12 %
Potential 5yr. Price appreciation - simple 76 %
Relative Value 1.29 Projected Relative Value .82
Upside Downside Ratio (Potential Gain vs. Risk of Loss)
= 6 to 1
Lessons Learn. Stick to your gut feelings. Buy
more on dips sell a little on upticks, but never sell
the whole thing if there is nothing wrong with the
fundamentals of the company. The smart money rotate their
money and health stock is in favor now. You just got to
know how to play the game.
over the years you have to answer only two
questions.Do you understand the company? Most people don't
have a clue what they are buying or why. Has the story
changed? Is their fraud,missed numbers etc.As long as i
like the story i try to buy when the stock is hated.It
took me a long time to buy when everyone hates a
company.But that is where you make your real $$$$. I didn't
buy wmt at 40 or anywhere up to 100.00.i missed
it.Retail always scared me.I still think km and wmart are
the same.I think fund managers are now switching to
value stocks,whivh if my hunch is right means a big
broad based rally is coming....
HMA was the first stock I ever bought and I have
always felt that it had great potential. I have sold
twice now and I am back on board, and yes, this time
for the long haul. I just hope the earnings
annoncement is good. I am now in HMA long for better or for
worse. I never was worried about the company, just the
cyclical nature of blue chips versus small and mid caps.
As for Wal-mart. I recently bought it in the low
90's. That is one of my better long term blue chips.
Yea, it will go down 4 and then one day up 4 but in
the end it is a winner and a leader in its sector.
WMT will split on Monday and allow all those who
could not afford the current hight share price a chance
to come on board.
I knew that one day I would buy
back in to HMA. Whether the share price was low or
high. All of you look at the stats. Enjoy the ride up.
Good luck HMA longs. And of course. Go Wal-mart.