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Netlist Inc. Message Board

  • kaibasl500 kaibasl500 Feb 8, 2013 5:07 PM Flag

    NLST CASH & O/S...

    NLST issued 1.6 M shares in Dec.2012, with 2.2 M in Warrants, which take effect after 180 days at 0.89 cents.
    Thus, total outstanding shares after factoring the above, will become 32.4 M shares outstanding.

    Cash
    10.4 M at the end of Sept. 28, 2012.
    They are expected to have gross margins between 15 - 20 % in 4th quarter.
    Hypothetical model:
    Revenue $6.1 M - $5.2 M Cost of Goods .. Divided by $6.1 M revenues = 15% Gross Margin.
    NLST has reduced expenses and R&D, which they expect to be $3.5 M going forward. I project it will stay around $4.1 M. for the 4th quarter. $0.9 M profit - $4.1 M in expenses for 4th quarter = ($3.2M) loss in the 4th quarter. The first 3 months of 2013, we assume expenses remain flat, instead of lower despite management projecting $3.5 M. We also factor in that margins improve from 15 % to perhaps 18% for the 1st quarter.

    Math:
    $10.4[cash 3rd quarter] - $3.2 m [loss 4th quarter] + $1.3 [profit from issuing outstanding shares] = $8.5 M cash on hand DEC. 31, 2012.

    Hypothetical Model:
    Revenues of $8 M for 1st quarter.
    With 18 % Gross Margin, NLST Profit for 1st quarter would be $1.5 M. Expenses remain at $4 M.
    Cash Burn for 1st quarter would be $4 - 1.5 M = ($2.5 M)

    TOTAL CASH AT THE END OF MARCH 31, 2013 =
    10.4 m - 3.2 m + 1.3 M - 2.5 m = $6 M Cash.

    NLST tends to hold on to news. When NLST reports numbers for 4th quarter, they will release news about 1 or 2 qualifications at that time. My biggest concern is what happen to HP qualification that was suppose to be announced at the end of Dec.

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NLST
1.53-0.03(-1.92%)3:03 PMEST

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