NLST issued 1.6 M shares in Dec.2012, with 2.2 M in Warrants, which take effect after 180 days at 0.89 cents.
Thus, total outstanding shares after factoring the above, will become 32.4 M shares outstanding.
10.4 M at the end of Sept. 28, 2012.
They are expected to have gross margins between 15 - 20 % in 4th quarter.
Revenue $6.1 M - $5.2 M Cost of Goods .. Divided by $6.1 M revenues = 15% Gross Margin.
NLST has reduced expenses and R&D, which they expect to be $3.5 M going forward. I project it will stay around $4.1 M. for the 4th quarter. $0.9 M profit - $4.1 M in expenses for 4th quarter = ($3.2M) loss in the 4th quarter. The first 3 months of 2013, we assume expenses remain flat, instead of lower despite management projecting $3.5 M. We also factor in that margins improve from 15 % to perhaps 18% for the 1st quarter.
$10.4[cash 3rd quarter] - $3.2 m [loss 4th quarter] + $1.3 [profit from issuing outstanding shares] = $8.5 M cash on hand DEC. 31, 2012.
Revenues of $8 M for 1st quarter.
With 18 % Gross Margin, NLST Profit for 1st quarter would be $1.5 M. Expenses remain at $4 M.
Cash Burn for 1st quarter would be $4 - 1.5 M = ($2.5 M)
TOTAL CASH AT THE END OF MARCH 31, 2013 =
10.4 m - 3.2 m + 1.3 M - 2.5 m = $6 M Cash.
NLST tends to hold on to news. When NLST reports numbers for 4th quarter, they will release news about 1 or 2 qualifications at that time. My biggest concern is what happen to HP qualification that was suppose to be announced at the end of Dec.
The only valid conclusion I could draw from the recent cash raise was that the company is still hopeful, based on the fact that some big shareholders/investors were still willing to give the company money, after all those years of setbacks.
What the bulls need to see is the first indication of real growth in sales of the HC modules. Or, the bulls last hope would be a buyout by some bigger player. I assume either IBM or HPQ would find HC some real value for their business going forward.