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Atlantic Tele-Network, Inc. Message Board

  • dumbdandelmagio dumbdandelmagio Mar 3, 2011 7:39 PM Flag

    Right on Track (Jumped the Track)

    You obviously haven't been reviewing the numbers or you would have clearly seen that post pay disconnects far outpaced the prepay disconnects, which leaves one to believe the problems lie much deeper than Wal Mart. There is a lot of people that have popped up over the last day or two to express their opinion because they have lost their rear in this stock. Don't try to paint a rosy picture when the results are lackluster at best. Before you send out anymore hype why don't you get you hands on the modeling Stephen's completed before downgrading the stock today from $50 to $35 (12 month target)

    4Q Gross Additions Net Additions
    Prepay 27,136 (22,059)
    Postpay 24,746 (26,752)

    4Q Total Disconnects
    Prepay (49,195)
    Postpay (54,498)

    So you couple the rapidly declining growth in postpay with the declining Postpay ARPU along with a 42% increase in churn at 3.18 and you have a wireless company in serious trouble by most analyst's observations. All other carriers are showing a significant growth in ARPU.

    It's pretty apparent that Verizon and AT&T are taking some serious market share over a much quicker time table than most expected.

    The problem only gets worse with Verizon getting the IPhone on a CDMA network. They are putting some serious hurt on Sprint and T-Mobile with this new handset so you know the finds it's way to Alltel. This impact isn't even showing up in Alltel numbers yet but will be very shortly.

    The plot thickens, Verizon announced they are ahead on the LTE network expansion and that will have negative impact in 2011 when Alltel is supposed to get back to normal.

    The reason they had to divest is because Verizon is already in most of their markets and when you take a closer look they not only have to compete with Verizon but AT&T is there as well.

    You sound like an intelligent investor so you should know hat ultimately the Mr. Market decides who;s right and who is wrong and for now the market has given this company a thumbs downs which contradicts that management is right in line with market expectations.

    The stock market is up over 27% over the last five months while this stock is down over 30%. What does that tell you about the forecasts versus actual results.

    I do agree with you on one thing. This stock is getting real close to being a good buy if you believe that things will turn around but they have a huge headwind in front of them and you have to ask yourself. Do they have the right team in place to get the job done? Not sure!

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