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Hydrogenics Corporation Message Board

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 Aug 1, 2013 12:43 PM Flag

    Chart Update after Earnings Report

    Here are some chart parameters to watch. A close today below 12.43 would be a negative statement and a close below 11.98 will likely take the stock back down to test the $10 level with 9.36 being the next important daily close support.

    The stock is showing 3 intra-week lows between 11.40 (today's low) and 11.82 that should be broken further. The stock has an important breakaway gap between 10.68 and today's low at 11.40 that if closed would take quite a bit of bullishness away from the chart. Nonetheless, it should be mentioned that the stock had a major breakout on May 24th from a 4-year sideways trend between 3.02 and 9.54 that is not likely to be negated, though drops down to the 9.54 level could be seen if today's earnings report was as disappointing as the action suggests it was. It is important to note that the 200-day MA is currently at 9.55, so a drop to the breakout level is highly likely to be seen if the stock closes today below 11.98 and likely to be seen if the stock closes today below 12.43.

    It should be mentioned that even if all of these things happen, a drop down to 9.55 would still keep the stock in a longer term uptrend, meaning that today's earnings report simply will decide if the stock is to go higher immediately or whether it is to go lower for the short term, build a new support level (likely around $10) and "then" go higher.

    Either way, this stock is still longer term bullish. The only decision to be made right now is whether to put the money into something else for the time-being or continue to trade the stock now.

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    • I hate to say this but the stock is showing a bearish inverted flag formation with the flagpole being the drop from 15.24 to 10.52 and the flag is the trading range the last 10 days between 10.52 and 11.69. Objective of the flag if the bottom of the flag is broken at 10.52 is 7.00.

      I am not saying the formation will be fulfilled as I do see the bears having a lot of problems getting the stock below 9.50 but the flag formation is presently built and the objective is valid based on the guidelines of flag formations. Just letting you know.

      The one thing that is clear though, is that the bulls have been unable to generate any kind of meaningful rally after the big drop. The stock has traded sideways for 9 days and that is a big negative as it shows no buying interest is being seen.

      A break above 11.69 will likely bring about a rally up to 12.50 where selling will likely be seen again. Nonetheless, if the bulls can't get above 11.69 in the next few days, the selling will return and push the stock down to at least the 9.50-9.70 level.

      Hey, don't shoot the messenger, this is just charting 101.

    • Thank you...very helpful...keep posting your thoughts...they are worthwhile and food for thoughtful investing

    • The stock did not break down. That is bullish period. This is going higher as it is the future banner stock HYGS has three businesses: Joe Springer wrote:

      -they are a leading supplier of on-site Hydrogen generation for all sorts of industrial and fueling purposes

      -they have a fuel cell business for propulsion and backup power for cell towers - they just got a $90 million propulsion order

      -and the most exciting business is that they do energy storage from renewable sources. The idea is that a windmill spinning at 4 am is wasted, no other way of storing the energy can scale for use at utilities. What they do is use the energy from the windmill to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, and then they take that hydrogen and inject it directly into the natural gas system. They already are doing it in Germany where they have won 4 of the 6 contracts awarded, they are competing for 12 more there currently. They have interest elsewhere in Europe and Japan, and Enbridge - the largest distributor of natural gas in North America - recently partnered with HYGS and took an ownership stake. This is a $10 - $50 billion market.

      • 1 Reply to greatbigbuy
      • Cmon, "the stock did not break down. That is a bullish period"?.

        To begin with the stock is down $5 from the high so there is selling involved. Secondly, a drop down to $10 does not get rid of the "bullish period" but is an amount that a "trader" does not want to be in on.

        As an "investor" you may want to disregard the short-term movement of the stock and hold for the long-term fundamental outlook, but the fact is that there is no way to specifically peg a price to this stock. Simply stated, $10 can mean the same as $12, $14, or $16 so don't say the stock cannot go down more.

        For a trader those $2-3 dollars can mean a lot of profit being left on the table, or money used elsewhere in the meantime.

        I have had this kind of discussion a thousand times before and most recently in AAPL, which up to recently was considered "the most bullish stock out there". When I went to the AAPL message board and started saying the stock was heading lower I got beat down and tried to be "run out of Dodge City". That was 10 weeks ago and during the past 10 weeks I have given them a total of 10 trades, most of which where on the short side (they laughed at me). Bottom line I have done a total of 6 profitable trades and 4 losers and most of them on the short side. I am showing a profit of close to $130 per share even though the stock has only traded within a $60 range. Explain that to me will you?

        That just goes to show that price is not all that important, especially to a trader. An investor may decide to disregard the short-term movements for the long-term profit potential but they are many short-term trades on both sides for a trader. Smarten up before making such a statement.

        True example!

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