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Beazer Homes USA Inc. Message Board

  • TAStatTrader TAStatTrader Mar 13, 2002 3:04 PM Flag

    100% vs 8%

    Can anyone explain why Homebuilders are up over 100% in a year, while new home sales are up 8%? Class, anyone? Anyone?

    The MBA reported Wednesday that its widely watched measure of home loan refinances, the MBA refinance index, fell 24.2 percent to 1783.0 in the March 8 week. Also, refinancings have fallen 21 percent from a year ago.

    At the same time, the industry trade group's measure of demand for applications to buy a home, the MBA purchase index, fell 6.2 percent to 314.6. While they were off in the latest week, applications to buy homes were up 8 percent from a year ago.

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    • Actually i want to ask another question:

      Why BZH is up 100% from the last February, when new residentual orders for the first 2 months of this year are flat: 1909 untis in 2002 vs 1907 units in 2001. I have to exclude governmental programms and Sanford.

      I also have another question: why the number of completed unsold houses went up 17% in Dec quarter?

      And another one: why is their average selling price have been falling steadily?

      bst rgrds

      • 1 Reply to yuri111
      • How good is it going to be that BZH is going to borrow over 200 mln to buy Crossman which new orders have already fallen whooping 40% from the last year?

        It's going to be very interesting to see how BZH manages Crossman's inventory overhang?

        Also, it is very interesting to see what will Crossman's shareholders do with the 3.6 mln shares of BZH they get?

        Will they hold them or dump them, being happy that they got a huge premium for their "great" company?

        so much for small float.

        bst rgrds

    • That is an easy question. The stock prices were very depressed a year ago because investors thought housing would decline (as it normally does ) during the recession. This pushed P/Es down to the 5-6x earnings. Instead of a slowdown, housing grew stronger resulting in stronger profits (30%-50%). An 8% increase in sales translated into much greater increase in Net Profits because operating margins expanded - both due to higher sales prices and the spreading of fixed cost over a larger sales base. The stock price had to go up - just to keep the industry p/e multiple constant. As evidence of housing's resistance to the mild recession mounted, the P/E has expanded slightly to (8-10x).

      I feel the housing industry p/e could expand quite a bit more to the 14-16x range. This would still put it below many industries that were much more sensitive to the economic slowdown.



      BZH traded between $10 and $20 for year. the run up in price coinsides with...surprise...the relentless rate cut campaign where we saw interest rates go to 30 year low in a record short time. FED was lowering rates at 0.5% increments, they were doing surprise between the meeting cuts, they just couldn't cut fast enough and now it turned out that we have never had a recession: GDP actually grew by 0.1% in the past 3 quarters when we were in a "recession".

      The incredible rate cut coinsided with, ABSENCE OF RECESSION, tax rebates, low gas prices, zero interest financing for cars, stock market decline (lack of alternative investment opportunities), hystorically low unemployment rates, nesting insticts in the wake of 9/11 attack, unusually warm winter, low inflation, low commodity prices.

      This is an incredible, ONCE IN A LIFE TIME, synergy of factors, and very very gradually all or nearly all of those thigns will dissipate.

      The conclusion for me is clear.

      bst rgrds

    • <<<QUESTION Is it smart to own stocks that have all negative posts or stocks that have all positve posts>>>

      thats what i call a cutting edge question! a new investing premice based on how many negative posts one can count on yahoo board!

      Ah guru, that cornucopia if great humor!!!

      LU has 18 analyst giving it hold ratings, BZH doesn't have a single one.

      That's the only sentiment you should care for.

      LU sentiment is very negative BZH is very positive.

      BZH --- a little PERCEIVED problem and it will go into tailspin. Does it have a problem? Yes. It is rate sensitive.

      LU --- a little glimmer of hope and the stock will add 20% overnight.

      BTW --- I am very, very, very long LU and I'll hold it all the way to 2004, when carier spending picks up.

      BZH --- I'll cover at $40, some time next year or maybe even this year, or maybe in 6 months.

      bst rgrds

    • <<<BZH is in the starter home market here in Vegas, with prices around 130 to 150. BZH homes are considered the best value>>>

      And since their average selling price is 197k it would seem they are selling them in Vegas at a loss. Hah, hah.

      And since Vegas gaiming industry is screwed, with other states relaxing gaiming restrictions, it seems that Vegas housing market is screwed as well.

      bst rgrds

    • I have followed the telecom industry over the years and I have to warn you that LU has a very uncertain future. Just because it was considered a blue chip once does not mean that it cannot go down the tubes. The basic problem with telco is that equipment pricing is falling as fast as capacity is increasing. Not a good situation in any industry. Compounding the problem is that there are many well financed companies out there and it will take a while before supply/demand balances out. Only the very strong will survive the shakeout and LU is not one of the strong.


    • Thank you for the warnings. The times could not be any worse for telcom industry, therefore it is time to buy.

      The times couldn't be better for homebuilders therefore it is time to short.

      bst rgrds

    • Yuri, you missed the entire point of my post. After completing the post, I thought to myself, do you suppose that the same bashers that are short the homebuilders are also long LU and WCOM? Then I said Nawwwwww, no possible way. I guess I was wrong.

      Yuri, you did it, you win the trifecta!!

      When the reverse split is announced, just remember + the guru always knows

    • <<<Will soon announce a normal 3 for 1 split>>>

      No split while in the process of issuing 3.6 mln shares to Crossman.

      No split while not having a shelf registration for additiuonal common shares.

      In other words --- no split.

      However, in all honesty, 3 for 1 split would have been a dream come true. In the long run it would expand a float, not to mentioned all the speculators, mo-mos and pump and dumpers it would attract.

      One just needs to look at all the recent 3 for 1 and 4 for 1 splits: BVSN, GSPN, QCOM, ERICY, NOK come to mind right away.

      bst rgrds

    • well when i went to your mom's house, she said it cost her $90k. Of course, she couldn't say much with my schlong in her mouth the whole time, but i think she said you lived in a trailer and that you'd shine my shoes next time i came over.

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