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Beazer Homes USA Inc. Message Board

  • Alex1444 Alex1444 Oct 7, 2002 12:43 PM Flag

    SEC Notification

    Anyone have past experience with SEC notification, regarding internet message board fraud & deception? Thanks in advance.

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    • <<< You just gave us a very good example of a bubble. >>>

      Man, did you ever miss my point! Sure, when telecom stocks were trading at 10-20 times book value, maybe 10 times revenues and 80 times earnings, with sales and earnings actually FALLING, yes that was a "bubble". So what? The homebuilders are today trading at about 6-7 times earnings, maybe 1.2 - 1.5 times book value, and PROFITS STILL GROWING. You call THAT a "bubble"? Get real!

    • <<< cyclical industry

      An industry which is sensitive to business cycles and whose performance is tied to the overall economy, especially interest rates. Examples are durable goods such as raw materials, autos, chemicals, **construction**, paper, steel, and heavy equipment. >>>

      Yes, but HOW cyclical is an industry where profits per share are higher every year for 10 years, regardless of interest rate movements and "minor recessions"? Check the EPS growth of the example I gave (DHI,in post 5901 - the one you referenced). Does that look like a stock which is heavily influenced by "economic cycles"? Even as interest rates were raised in 2000, the homebuilders reported higher profits in 2000 than 1999, and higher in 2001 that 2000. Sure ALL companies earnings are influenced by "economic cycles", even Microsoft. But the ones that are truly considered "cyclical companies" are the ones that are MOST influenced by economic cycles, to the point where often they will move from periods of a few years large profit, to a year or two of losses, then back to a few years of even greater profit, etc. In the case of the homebuilders over the past 10 years, such profits have not "cycled" at all in that way - the've simply been higher every year. Therefore I question whether the homebuilders should even be put in the "cyclical" category at this point, and surely with share prices as low as they are now (relative to earnings/share and book value, etc) it seems a lot of "down cycle" is already priced in - a "down cycle" which has yet to appear in either the earnings or the order numbers!

    • Alex, Alex, Alex:

      First when the stock market moves against you it's because short selling should be illegal. Then it's because the market makers and the Big Boys are manipulating the stocks. Finally it's because somebody with a different (and correct!) opinion about the direction of these stocks actually expresses his/her view.

      And now you want the SEC to investigate why XYZ and QRZ said those things about POS BZH?

      Save yourself some time and trouble. Homebuilding is a cyclical biz, the cycle was bigger and better for longs than it had been for a looooooooooooooong time. Can you spell bubble? Smart longs rode it up and got out in May-June. The bagholders are left.

      It's cycling down. Eventually, when these boards are quiet and everybody is convinced that you can only lose money in the homeboys, it will be wise to buy them again. Since they way overshot on the high side, expect them to be punished viciously, expect to see the homeboys bottoming at 0.6 X book value.

      Expect to see BZH at $34, HOV at $10-11.


      • 1 Reply to Kodiakbull
      • <<< Save yourself some time and trouble. Homebuilding is a cyclical biz, the cycle was bigger and better for longs than it had been for a looooooooooooooong time. >>>

        By save yourself some trouble, you mean I should just take your word for everything, including your price prediction? Or do you mean I shouldn't notify the SEC, as is my right? I have no problems with opinions, I do have a problem with deliberately misstated "facts", particularly when the perpetrator has had a clear opportunity to make a correction, and has declined to do so.

        As to your "cyclical" statement, "cyclical" compared to what industry? Don't you think tech is more cyclical than homebuilding today? IMO, the nature of the homebuilding companies changed about 12 years ago, and are less exposed to "boom and bust" as prior to that time.

        I'll give you an example of a homebuilder, DR Horton (DHI - which just reported excellent sales order numbers today). Check out the eps numbers since 1992, how "cyclical" are these?

        DHI (fiscal year ended, eps) CYCLICAL?:
        1992 $0.23
        1993 $0.19
        1994 $0.38
        1995 $0.41
        1996 $0.64
        1997 $0.69
        1998 $0.94
        1999 $1.50
        2000 $1.69
        2001 $2.21

        2002 (est) $2.81
        2003 (est) $3.24


        Again, how "cyclical" are the above numbers? What makes you so sure the so-called "cycle" is crashing? How far would profits have to fall to make the above stock (DHI) a poor value? The current price on DHI is barely over $17/share. How many $17/share stocks have the above mentioned EPS numbers? Yet DHI is fairly typical of the homebuilder group, and in some ways BZH is an even better "value
        than DHI (though DHI's growth % numbers are stronger).

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