Thu, Jan 29, 2015, 3:06 PM EST - U.S. Markets close in 54 mins.

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Beazer Homes USA Inc. Message Board

  • Alex1444 Alex1444 Nov 9, 2002 4:36 PM Flag

    Homebuilder PE comparison

    Here's an interesting comparison of the PE ratios of the 15 major (market cap over $400 million) publicly held homebuilders (free standing, not "factory built" or "mobile homes", not condo towers, etc.). As of the market close on Friday, November 8, 2002.

    Symbol, PE

    BZH...5.64
    MDC...5.99
    RYL....6.27
    DHI....6.48
    PHM...6.50
    MTH...6.69
    CTX....6.70
    KBH....6.77
    TOL....6.83
    SPF....7.11
    MHO...7.15
    TOUS..7.42
    LEN....7.49
    NVR....9.09
    HOV....9.67

    Median PE on this group is 6.77. If BZH simply matched the median PE of the group, it would currently trade at $72.74/share (which would be more a 20% increase from the current price of $60.60/share). And I personally believe that the homebuilders as a group are undervalued, that the median PE will be going higher than the current 6.77, which is about one fourth the average PE on the S&P 500.

    Boilerplate: Above information is believed to be accurate, but be sure to check it for yourselves, before assuming accuracy!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Alex- I am confused!!! Last week lowest PE was a positive. Now "not lowest!" is a positive.

      I am getting mixed signals here, but then I am only the_board_idiot.

      _TBI

    • PE ratios as of the market close on Tuesday, December 31, 2002.

      Symbol, PE

      RYL....5.63
      BZH...5.64
      DHI....6.05
      MHO...6.56
      KBH...6.66
      MDC...6.72
      MTH...6.88
      TOL...6.94
      PHM...7.16
      HOV...7.37
      LEN....7.50
      CTX....7.61
      SPF....7.96
      NVR...9.48

    • HBs are definitely a bargain...there is no real housing bubble (except in a few specific regions)...and the HBs will likely have yet another record year in 2003...The Federal Government will soon offer an economic stimulus, likely tax-based and specifically eliminating double taxation of dividends...When comparing values of HBs, consider the % dividend rate paid, as that will significantly add to value of the equity...Look to some HBs to increase dividends, or initiate one...Best overall bargain in this sector is D R Horton (DHI), which will soon announce a dividend payable (and hopefully an increase)...It is currently yielding more than others in the sector, and the annual meeting is in January...I expect an increase to be announced...
      All HBs are undervalued...Interest rates will stay low a long time... and will only rise if the economy improves, which would add more homebuyers' demand...
      Buying a home has never made more sense, and the demand will stay strong for years...barring a long-lasting world war..or the failure of capitalism in the United States...and that wont happen...



      ...my honest opinion...

    • Ranked by Price/Earnings ratio, Beazer still is the "best buy" in a tremendously undervalued sector. Here is a comparison of the PE ratios of the 14 major (market cap over $400 million) publicly held homebuilders (free standing, not "factory built" or "mobile homes", not condo towers, etc.).

      PE ratios as of the market close on Friday, December 27, 2002.

      Symbol, PE

      BZH....5.64
      RYL....5.82
      DHI....6.09
      MHO...6.46
      KBH....6.67
      MDC...6.82
      TOL....6.96
      MTH...7.03
      PHM...7.19
      LEN....7.62
      HOV...7.63
      CTX....7.70
      SPF....8.07
      NVR...9.64

      Median PE on this group is 6.995. If BZH simply matched the median PE of the group, it would currently trade at $75.12/share (which would be a 24% increase from the current price of $60.60/share). And I personally believe that the homebuilders as a group are undervalued, that the median PE will be going higher than the current 6.995, which is about one fourth the average PE on the S&P 500.

      Boilerplate: Above information is believed to be accurate, but be sure to check it for yourselves, before assuming accuracy!

    • Kami,
      It is so true that it is like there is something that is missing. Something rather odd. It's like you can't quite put your finger on it but you know it's there. Perhaps we will find out in this next year.

      Just thought I'd add too, that about 2 years ago Kudlow was on tv with his best friend Bill Griffith of cnbc. An hour show, just the 2 of them, confessing to the world about Larry's coke problem and how he got through rehab with the help of his best friend Bill. Usual stuff. Unfortunately, some nights it looks like the problem may have passed on to Cramer, lol.

    • SHORTY SEZ: GOod frend Alex should try to "flesh out" his rankings. Perhaps he could explore the reasons WHY BZH always wins this "beauty" (read: 'ugly') contest.

      Also, I recently did a chart of BZH vs a handful of HBs. Seems like BZH has been dragging for quite some time. Perhaps there is a reason for its poor relative strength?

      While the market can be wrong for short periods of time, it cannot be always wrong... there is something that this board is overlooking. This board can make/lose a lot of money over this missing explanation. I wish I knew what it was that we are overlooking or of what it isw that we are unaware. [awkward sentence structure, but I wanted to avoid the dangling participle].

      BTW: the stock appears to be on a new, lower step. This stepping down is certainly slow, but as long as it is down, I guess the shorts cannot complain.
      Broad-based market looks lower next week. Perhaps an opportunity for further purchases in the high 50's, before we get to the high 40's.

    • <<So you go on that shorty bus trip over the cliff by yourself. Enjoy the ride.>>>

      Alex, Alex, Alex:
      SHORTY SEZ: I ain't the only one on this bus. Approx 25% of the BZH shares are short. Did you know that a recent academic study found that companies with large short interests are more likely to go BK?
      (That is not to say every stock, or that on average they fall more than average; only that they are more likely to go BK).
      Party On, Dudes!

    • <<< If the bus goes off the cliff, arguing about who is sitting in which seat is probably less important that getting off the bus!
      SHORTY SEZ: Don't ride the bus over the cliff! >>>

      Ok, I won't get on the "short the hombebuilders" bus with you, because I believe you guys are going off a cliff - as the homebuilders will climb higher and higher (IMO). I see you are back to your scare tactics again - you do like to shout "fire!" in a crowded theater, don't you? But your renewed scare tactics merely show how desperate you feel about your short position going up in smoke.

      All I can say is that you had your chance to cover; you didn't deserve a chance to cover so low, but you got it anyway. Soon you'll be kicking yourself for not covering for a profit, then kicking yourself for not covering at break-even, kicking yourself for not covering at a modest loss, kicking yourself for not covering before you went bankrupt, etc. So you go on that shorty bus trip over the cliff by yourself. Enjoy the ride.

    • <<<You are assuming that the "wisdom of the crowd" is at all
      times precisely correct>>>

      That is NOT a tenent of Efficient-market hypothesis. There are always LOT of inefficiencies...
      However, these inefficiencies are not thought to last for years and years, but rather focus on over-reactions, or illiquidity, or something else.
      Also, to the extent that the entire sector looks like it's past its peak, I am not sure it's really germane. If the bus goes off the cliff, arguing about who is sitting in which seat is probably less important that getting off the bus!
      SHORTY SEZ: Don't ride the bus over the cliff!

    • The reason is this: This and other home builers are run by executives and directors who are enriching themselves at the expense of the shareholders. They are exercising options at $20 and selling them immediately, reaping millions on each transaction. They buy back stock for the singular purpose of giving themselves more and more options at 1/3 the market value. THEY PAY PUNY OR NO DIVIDENDS.

      These are mid-size ENRONS, being run by crooks. Nobody believes their numbers. Every real estate guy I ever knew was a crook, living by deception alone, these guys are no exception. The first and most important reason for owing a stock is good and honest management.
      If you want a constant 10-15% return buy a good health care REIT like HR, pays 8% and increases the dividend each year, will increase earnings 7-10% next year, no funny business, they give 85% of the cash flow to the shareholders.

    • View More Messages
 
BZH
17.20+0.61(+3.68%)3:05 PMEST

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.