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Beazer Homes USA Inc. Message Board

  • WisdomFolly WisdomFolly Dec 9, 2002 10:57 AM Flag

    HB perma-bears losing credibility

    Do you guys really BELIEVE your rhetoric? How many more "peak" quarters are we going to see? Face the facts, these companies are not going to underperform the general economy. You will make more money shorting SPYders than these stocks if you truly believe the economy is in the crapper. Wise up. Move on.

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    • http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=spy&k=c1&t=3m&s=bzh&a=v&p=s&l=on&z=m&q=l

      I would look at a chart befor making a silly statement like that.

      • 1 Reply to rowbill
      • It's time to take a time out. It can't be any fun to watch your investment crumbling, day to day. That morning open's got to really sting. So I'm going to relax and concentrate on other things. I think gravity's going to bring this puppy down further, we're in a bear flag and it's not going to be pretty, but there's no sense in rubbing salt in these rather gaping and suppurating wounds, is there?

        I mean, we could all pretend to be long as well. Misery loves company.

        Kb

    • <<How many more "peak" quarters are we
      going to see>> No more. You're just seeing the same peak quarter, reported by differing companies.
      The game is over; everyone knows it. There is dramatic insider selling across the board. Check out BZH- the insiders have been selling HUGE on balance. Wanna join them or wanna argue with them?
      The HBs that haven't yet posted earnings will be posting RECORD QUARTERS. THIS WAS A RECORD YEAR!!! Unfortunately, stocks don't anticipate the past.

      • 1 Reply to kamikazieee
      • <<< The game is over; everyone knows it. There is dramatic insider selling across the board. Check out BZH- the insiders have been selling HUGE on balance. Wanna join them or wanna argue with them?
        The HBs that haven't yet posted earnings will be posting RECORD QUARTERS. THIS WAS A RECORD YEAR!!! Unfortunately, stocks don't anticipate the past. >>>

        Shorty lying again, more "scare tactics". The insiders still have huge stock positions, and sold at far higher prices than today. As to this year being the "peak", you'll have to eat those words (although I doubt you'll be here in a year, you just want a fast ill-gotten buck and outta here).

        Where were you in 1999? That's when all the other shorties were saying that earnings had "peaked" for the homebuilders, because interest rates were soon going up (which they did, in 2000 - but this did not hurt the homebuilder's profits). Also in 1999, it was "clear" that the market was "signaling" bad times ahead for homebuilder profits - i.e, the stock prices of homebuilders fell in late 1999 and early 2000. However, that "signal", that "anticipation" was completely erroneous. Once the market realized its mistake, the homebuilders went up by an average of 300% or so (quadrupling) over the next two years. Late 1999/early 2000 was the time to buy homebuilder stocks, not sell. Looks like history is repeating now - it's late 1999/early 2000 all over again. I guess you weren't here at that time, so you are doomed to repeat the pain those short sellers felt in that period. And that's fine with me.

    • a strong economy at this point is not necessarily a good thing for the hbs. the recent strong rise in the housing market was due more to lower interest rate and 'nowhere better to put money into' then due to the performance of economy. from this point on you are only going to see higher interest rate and lower housing price.

    • <<Face the facts, these companies are not going to underperform the
      general economy. >>>

      Don't be absurd. Highly leveraged companies in a highly leveraged sector with rising interest rates and increasing unemployment.
      This is a formula for disaster.

      IF the HDs avoid the usual cyclical swing, it will be unprecedented. Personally, I bet that the future resembles the past. The less things change, the more they remain the same.

 
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