You're a dreamer Alexi!
All that tech valuation nonsense does not apply. The future was limitless, the internet would change everything.
The fact is 1,700,000 single family homes are being built this year. And they're being built further away from population centers than ever.
We already have a credit bubble of massive proportions. You don't think there's a credit bubble? Check the price of Gold lately? Take a look at the dollar?
<<< They've been talking housing for a few years now, but now it's just as absurd as during the peak of the bubble. >>>
"They" may have been talking about housing prices themselves, but the homebuilder stocks have not been chatted up. The homebuilder stocks are nowhere near a bubble. Today in fact may be the first day that the public is finding out what great bargains the homebuilder stocks themselves are - now maybe that's the very start of what will ultimately be a huge bubble in homebuilder prices; I certainly hope so. I'd love to see "bubble" PEs on homebuilders, such as 50-100.
You seem to be making the same mistake as all the other failed homebuilder shorters. You don't seem to realize that during the tech "bubble", those tech stocks were trading at something like 100 PEs, 10 times revenue, 10 times book value. The homebuilders are nowhere near any of those "bubble" levels. But keep up your desperation posts Dimmy, you provide entertainment value to the longs.
<<Remember a few years ago when everybody stood around the watercooler, backyard barbecues, etc., talking about their stock market investments and how they were all going to retire millionaires? Etrade, Cisco, JDSU...everybody was going to retire to Napa...>>
They've been talking housing for a few years now, but now it's just as absurd as during the peak of the bubble. Actually it's worse, because even the blue collar branch of the family who never could save a dime is in the game in a huge way. They always owned a home, lived hand to mouth, and now they're tapping the home equity to put in new kitchens and bathrooms. They call it an investment. I tell them, just regrout and sell the house, nobody is going to pay you for a new bathroom
Yes, you've hit the nail on the head...when an "unusual" subject matter becomes a "usual one" in unlikely places, then it's the sign that things are slightly out of whack...
Remember a few years ago when everybody stood around the watercooler, backyard barbecues, etc., talking about their stock market investments and how they were all going to retire millionaires? Etrade, Cisco, JDSU...everybody was going to retire to Napa...
Now, around the watercoolers, at barbecues, everybody talks about how much their house has appreciated and how much equity they've amassed. "We're rich! Why, if we recarpet and paint the house, it will probably appreciate another 75K. We can sell it in two years, retire and buy that ranch in Montana"!
Maybe their right? I'll leave that judgment up to you.
...who are succesful are named Hovanian,
Horton, Shottenstein ( you get the idea )
Be careful using your own failure stories...
there are failure stories in every industry.
A failure tries and fails. A successful person
tries and fails, and tries and fails and tries and fails until he succeeds ( u need to succeed only once to be a success )
Alexi, I'm not short BZH, but I am short some homebuilders.
It's like substituting a Flaming Briquette for Preperation H, as a prelude to a Memorial Day cookout. I bet everyone wants to talk about how much the homes in their neighborhood are worth at all the parties this weekend!
yes Alex I agree...
Oh by the way my portfolio of 16 homebuilders
is UP 3.13% so far today.....Imagine how
embarrassing it will be for the shorts to
learn that I ( a dolt ) am making a lot of
As the child of a "mom and pop" developer family, I think I can see this playing out just like the late 1980s. All of a sudden there is inventory that doesn't move.
Coming to a theater near you this summer!
(there is more unsold inventory in this market this spring than at any point in the last few years. I think it's up 25% over last year, but prices are still up.)
Maybe the punk will be able to flip it for a 50K profit in six months...they're lots more guys like Jesus out there, just waiting for their "leg up" to join the party and get into the Gigantic American Dream...maybe the next guy will make 50K a year, one breadwinner, zero down with 3K monthly payments...his application will sail through with flying colors. Maybe Jesus can flip it the following year to another zero down guy...
The music will stop. Just how much longer will the game continue, that's the question...it could be awhile...
My brother just went to contract on his home with this punk who is doing a 5 year interest only bullet loan as his first mortgage, and using a conventional 2nd to make his down payment. No money down! This guy is clearly going to be upside down in his house when that balloon payment is due.