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Beazer Homes USA Inc. Message Board

  • shortuntilzero shortuntilzero Aug 1, 2003 2:08 PM Flag

    Too easy

    BZH is easy money on the short side. Buy your puts and borrow all you can to sell. All the good news has been priced in to shares and BZH keeps falling. What is with all you bulls predicting $100 per share and higher? I dont get it! BZH cant cross $79! (seventy-nine is less that one hundred...for those who went to school in Alabama)
    I wish they were all this easy. I'll buy back at $55...cover at $80...but this is too easy!!

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    • <<<I dont get it! BZH cant cross $79! (seventy-nine is less that one hundred...for those who went to school in Alabama)>>>

      It crossed 79 you fool.

      <<<I'll buy back at $55...cover at $80>>>

      Did you make your cover, how much did you loose?

    • Good luck to you too Alex!

      Remember what I said before about not getting piggy. Lots have changed, AG is no longer on the bond side. Playing this little bond pop could be very dangerous.

      I'll check back in October to see your PE update. I think you might only need to use one hand to count after the next round..LOL.

    • Shortuntilzero, funny how BZH is up ever since roughly 2pm EDT last Friday (Aug 1).

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BZH&d=c&t=5d&l=on&z=b&q=l

      You da man! NOT. But you've been a great good luck charm for the longs, so keep that vitriol coming. Every time you act all cocky and say "I love it", seems like that's another nail in the short's coffin. Guess this wasn't so "easy" for you, eh? But keep that short money coming to us longs, we love it!

    • <<<$100. You're kidding, right? Where can I get some of that stuff your bootin'?>>

      Here is were I get more than $100/share

      Projected earnings ($12.48) times averge P/E for the industry (11.89) equals $148/share. The $100/share is a very conservative estimate.

    • <<< $100. You're kidding, right? >>>

      Nope, not kidding. But my actual phrase was "well over $100" - that's in a year or two. Short term who knows. Please stay short a year or two Mr. FatFish, will you promise to do that? Of course you won't; you know as well as anyone that the longer you wait, the more the BS of earnings being "at a peak now" will be revealed. All you can hope for is some very short term scare stories, and even those are likely to stop working soon. Keep up the BS and your shorting though, we need people like you so as to maximize our long profits - thanks!

    • $100. You're kidding, right? Where can I get some of that stuff your bootin'?

    • <<< BZH is easy money on the short side.... wish they were all this easy. I'll buy back at $55...cover at $80...but this is too easy!! >>>

      Nothing is ever "too easy". You should have seen the short sellers such as "Kodiak", "Jmny", "Kamikazieee", "Sharkbite", etc. They all declared that shorting BZH and the other homebuilders was "too easy", or similar words. And yet they all lost massive amounts of money shorting this stock and this sector. The fact is that no one can predict the short term price movements of these stocks; the long term however is much more clear, and it's not in the bears favor. As long as BZH keeps making their EPS numbers, the ultimate price for this stock keeps going higher and higher. Sure, BZH isn't $100 now, but it should be. Two or three years from now, a lot of people will likely wish they could have bought BZH as low as $100 back here. Good luck making your "easy money", but realize these stocks can turn on a dime and wipe you out. The longs can just put this one away, sit back and see where it is in one, two, five years. The bears aren't so fortunate; they need to watch this stock like hawks every minute, and hope that fear and BS carries the day a little longer. You might make some money off that fear and BS, but if you do, it won't have been easy, IMO. The short term is a coin flip; the long term is in the bank for the bulls. Just my opinions.

      • 2 Replies to Alex1444
      • <Nothing is ever "too easy". You should have seen the short sellers such as "Kodiak", "Jmny", "Kamikazieee", "Sharkbite", etc. They all declared that shorting BZH and the other homebuilders was "too easy", or similar words.>

        Still smoking that PE crack pipe Alex? It was super easy when you momo bubble heads float it up into the 90's. It's truely sad to think all those sucker shares bought in May about to go under and you are still hyping. Shame on you!

      • if this were true then BZH would have gone up continuously since its commencement of trading, which it didn't do in the 90s.

        If housing starts slow even a little bit from their recent, very brisk pace, people are going to unload this stock like ho-hos in a fat farm (no offense intended). Of course, in the long run bzh will probably do fine. But put holders (and shorters) are looking to the short term, which is what we are discussing.

        Absolutely, buy it and hold it, but to look at the chart, its inverse correlation with interest rates, our national debt (which interest rates will have to rise to cover) and deny that there will be a correction is being quite optomistic.

        Buy and hold, but for the next 6 months, watch out (imho).

    • What maeks you think you are immune to the fundamentals. What makes you believe that a stock with projected earnings of over $12.00 will go down $55.00/share. You are just like all those loosers who sold short last March and ended up loosing a lot of money.

      • 1 Reply to mrtuttle
      • ok. you may be right. But what makes you think home building stocks are immune to supply and demand? Just because the last year was great does not mean the next one will be. Once taxi drivers are recommending that it is time to buy a home and take advantage of low interest rates (via popular opinion), it's time for a correction (just like the .coms). Once the popularity wanes, un-popularity follows.

    • I think this may be right. How can that many people (who don't have jobs) afford homes that start at $400,000 (in much of the country)? The refinancing hype is over, and people are either going to default or sell at lower prices. Besides, prices will have to go down to offset higher mortgage rates.

      BZH longs will take profits (they have a lot) and the stock price will go down (stong support at $70 I think). Good for them, but it can't continue.

 
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