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Beazer Homes USA Inc. Message Board

  • ellicott_2002 ellicott_2002 Jan 27, 2004 1:36 PM Flag

    Once again look at the chart-Somebody

    is getting out.3rd day in a row this chart has been like this. Dont take my word for it. I am asking why??? Anybody else listen to the conference call and get the same feeling this next quarter is going to be soft.JMO

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    • Yes, I think the January jobs report will set the near-term direction. (Another good reason for me to stay shy of BZH for at least another week.) Perhaps Greenspan has a clue about a strong report, but I doubt it. He has indicators he follows, but even he has to wait for the report. Who knows?! December sure as hell surpised everyone!

      One thing is clear: Greenspan changed his tone because he's <anticipating> an increase in jobs in the coming months. At the same time, unemployment benefits are running out for a lot of people. And the street has gotten smart about how misleading unemployment claims are to the general job market (though Bush tries to obfuscate for political reasons). I'm afraid we're going to have to wait for the January report.

    • I completely agree, the entire housing bubble has been inflated on bad economic news. Bad new alows the fed to keep rates low. We'll find out a little more next Friday when the government realeases the January jobs report.

    • I've decided to simply keep my eye on this stock as a future short. This morning, it's up against a declining Dow and therefore showing excellent relative strength.

      Everyone assumes Greenspan will raise interest rates in a few months. But Greenspan assumes that jobs will come back and the economy will be strong enough. I frankly doubt it. Interest rates may remain low, people may stretch to the limit to buy houses in a last frenzy to get in, and although the end will arrive, BZH is probably a risky short right now. If this stock goes back up to 109, I'll short it and hope it'll make a double top. Eventually, either the economy slips back into recession or interest rates go up. Home prices are way too high and people are too much in debt. BZH looks like a good short in the coming year.

    • Well let me put it this way, what leverage does the FED now have over interest rates. Its not feasible to drop them, in fact the fed has stated, if not so clearly, that we are approaching a higher rate environment. The downtrend was not breached on theat last rise, but when it does expect a 10-15 % drop in all these bloating homebuilders len ctx ohb bzh hov, and their associated mortgage dealers. Yes keep feeding the american dream.

      Many of you longs have adopted a long term view for this company, same here. Daily preterbations in price will get ironed out. Target of mid 50's by may

    • 10yr falling like a Rock today.......I guess your chart(which I did not look at) is wrong.......Hehehehhehehehhee!

    • I see what you mean. That is very interesting since I guess I thought the rates had been lower during that Feb. - Apr. time frame. Yes, 5.5% on the TNX in month or so wouldn't surprise me.

    • look for the 10yr to hit 5.5 rather soon.$TNX,uu[h,a]waclyyay[df][pb50!b200][

      Draw some trendlines in, once the 10yr breaks 4.5 it'll head to 5.5 rather quickly. Just look at the market reaction to just a hint of rate increases. It's gonna kill this stock and any other mortgage related business, WM DRL just to name a few. Perhaps F and GM

    • One word-Earnings! BZH is poised to earn at least $14.50 this which translates into a price no less than $130.

      Anybody with a brain knows that mortgages are tied to the 10-yr bond which are INFLUENCED by the economy. Economy added just 1,000 jobs in December which hast it down around 4.1%, as opposed to more than 4.5% back in November I think!

      I suggest you go short some Tech stocks selling for 10X Revenues if you want to make money, otherwise you'll go Bald with long beard shorting this with 30-yr mortgages below 6%.

    • I have been short long enough to have grown a long beard. Even though the Fed hasn't actually raised rates, look at how the 10 year note reacted with just the change of a few words in the language.

      And the chincks in the armour have started to appear in inventories, backlog, guidance, prices, and new home sales around the industry. We could see the low 80's next week and the 70's in 10 days.

      This stock is capable of going down 10 or 12 days in a row like it did in July 2002 when it went from 78 to 55.

      It could be five years before we see prices near 100 again IMHO.

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