Wow, did I learn a lesson the last few trading days! I made a killing on my Nov 35s when the new housing numbers were released and wisely dumped all of em between 34.75 and 35.10 for a 200% profit. So I figured I'd reload the puts after an expected mini-rally and put 20% into some more Nov 35s between 36 and 36.50 and the rest in March and May's. I got too agressive and watched a month's profit disappear in two trading days. I'm sure the longer-terms will be just fine with time, but the Novs are almost worthless. Might as well let em ride and hope for the best...no point dumping em now. Anyway, just a lesson learned and maybe y'all can learn from my mistake too...never re-load short-term after a huge gain!
Yes, so how many ten day periods fit in a ten 10 year period? But you don't even need that number. Just add all your gains, subtract your losses and costs. That will give you your total pre-tax loss. It ain't that hard.
You are simply confirming the fact that throughout history the average short has lost money while the average long has made money. Losing money is just a matter of time for all shorts. If you don't show a net loss yet, just short some more and reality will catch up with you sooner or later. It is as certain as death and taxes.
I agree with you to a certain extent. I've never been short in the past, but the HBs have so many macro issues facing them.
Historically, it is a given that being short is a much tougher play than being long. I'm still in the green on my HB puts, about 50% since August, but that's a lot less than the 190% I was up a week ago! Just lost my discipline and paid for it...thankfully it was with the house's money. But yes, playing short and with puts you do have to be more cautious than I was. Lesson learned, will make me a better trader in the long run...
Good luck to everyone
I feel your pain, as well. But, BZH had one of the highest short interest ratios of all of the HB's, so I think we had a lot of short covering over the past few days. Although I was expecting this quarter to be a blow-out for this industry, I guess others felt different.
Although the company is tooting the "record earnings" horn, the same issues facing this industry since late summer, are still there: rising rates, inflation, continued weakening in existing homes sales and increasing inventories.
Fresh R/E industry data will be out net week. We'll see how long this rally will last, based upon record summer sales and earnings.
The weakening of existing homes sales in some parts of the country is mainly caused by people's desire to live in a NEW homes in stead of somebody elses old dive. Nice, new neat, nifty BZH homes can be bought for less you know. It explains why construction is up in areas where older homes are not selling as well. Longs keep on smiling.