Take your numbers and throw them in the garbage. In the next quarter or two earnings will collapse and the company probably will have trouble giving guidance going forwar due to lack of visibility. This is not company specific but will rock all the homebuilders (starting already). If you can't see this coming you have the eonomic vision of Andrea Boccelli or Stevie Wonder, take your pick.
hey buffett, did you buy the 20K shares that BZH vp of planning sold? surely you tried to. i mean hell he's only a vp of planning, surely to god he isn't able to see what the likely future is for bzh. he must have needed 1.2 million for his kids college fund. you just can't read news like that and sleep well,.... can you?
I am not swimming against the current. I think BZH is an excellent buy. What other homebuilder is selling this cheap? Don't you think all the negativity is already priced into the stock? Don't you think the huge % of float that is short is already putting more downward pressure than is necessary. I have a cost basis of $50 and I will be holding long-term. BZH book value is increasing also, its a little over $34 now. I just do not understand, yes there is external effects on the homebuilders but the strong will outperform the weak while still trading at the same valuations as the weak. For example today TOL announced that sales are decreasing, but did BZH announce that sales are decreasing? NO. Yet they were still effected, so don't you think the negativity is priced in for BZH to fail. No doubt next quarter will be a tough quarter for BZH to grow YOY quarterly earnings, but the quarter after the next will be the easiest quarter for BZH to beat, regardless of what market we are in. Also all of you are saying that in a weak realestate market, homebuilders should trade at a PE of 6. Well look at BZH, it is currently trading at a PE of 6.88. According to oiltoohigh, BZH will test its 52 week low, meaning it will trade at 3.66 x current earnings, .93 x book value, and .20 x sales. Don't you see how ridiculous that even sounds. Even in the worst realestate market, has homebuilders ever traded at 3 x current earnings and 93% of bookvalue....LOL, now that is pushing it a ALOT. I do not think institutions will even let it trade that cheap. At current prices if one does not own any shares it would be a good time to purchase some. Failure is priced in (IMO)
Buffett.. why are swiming against the current? The HB are all directly hit by the same issues; over cooked market, higher interest rates, increased raw materials, increased energy cost, etc...; it's time for you to turn and swim with the cuurent or you will be eaten by a big old bear just like a salmon.
<<<BZH was already overpriced compared to TOL>>>
where are you getting your facts? BZH is trading cheaper than TOL in respect to price/sales, price/book, and PE. BZH did sell off in sympathy. BZH is fundamentally a very strong company and has a track record. External news from other non-performing homebuilders can only keep it down for a short while.
BZH has already reported GREAT #'s -- the market will correct itself to those that deserve it -- and punish only those that didn't have good #'s. TOL, for example. MM's love to create "faux bad news" for companies in order to add to their position -- imho there is not a big worry for BZH or others builders who can/have proven themselves.
Hey buddy.....Toll just warned of a housing slowdown.....and BZH is taking it on the chin.....I hope your wife does not leave you today when you tell her that you lost all of your money.
Interest Rates determine values.....
I want to add one more thing, that I left out in the last post. Before this earnings everyone was saying that BZH is trading very expensive relative to its peers in term of PE. Now if you look at it, with BZH trading at 7.26 x current earnings. It is actually one of the cheapest.....compared to DHI, NVR, LEH, PHM, MHO, TOL, KBH, WLT, CVCO, DHOM, SKY, TOA
cheaper than BZH is only
WLS, LEV, OHB