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Beazer Homes USA Inc. Message Board

  • grandekahunas grandekahunas Apr 21, 2006 8:03 AM Flag

    We need a HB Bull on this board so we

    can pounce

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    • This Board is too useless for us HB bulls to waste our time on. I check in every few months and am always amazed at the level of ignorance and paranoia. I made over $1 million on this stock last year alone. Yes the market is cooling, but San Diego does not represent the nation. The fed may have stopped raising rates, and this company, like many HB's, is spending significant cash buying back stock. As I have said on another board, it's like the HB shorts are playing poker and one of the players has $300 million in cash and keeps raising. Sure this stock may go down more short term, but in the long run it will do well. The ultimate factor here is demographics -- they ain't making any more land. Anyone who is aware of what's going on with immigration in this country knows that our population will continue to increase and that home prices will, long-term, continue to outpace inflation.

      So "pounce." I don't mean to be rude but I couldn't care less whatever you think of me. And don't expect me to waste my time responding to whatever insults you wish to embarrass yourself with.

      • 3 Replies to nottooobrite
      • shut up

      • I just pulled up a 3 year weekly chart on BZH. It was in a strong uptrend through Jan. of this year and has since broken down. The downtrend is only just beginning and I expect to last for a long time.

        Anyone who has been long HBs during the past few years has done very well. But both the fundamentals (higher interest rates and inventory, increasing costs, slowing demand) all point to a downturn that has been long in the making.

        This board should not be about shorts vs. longs as if it were a game. Rather it is about investors sharing information toward the shared goal of making money.

        I'd like to know your rationale for saying BZH or any other HB will do well "long-term". You admit some short term weakness, but what is your time horizon?

        The demographics argument is dubious. Look at the inventories in many key markets and the unprecedented prices. The simple truth is that it is much more affordable to rent than buy and that it will take a combination of rent inflation and home price reduction to balance that equation. In the meantime, where are new buyers going to come from?

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