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Beazer Homes USA Inc. Message Board

  • holidaymatt33 holidaymatt33 Jul 20, 2007 10:34 AM Flag

    just shorted

    kbh at 35.35 It has been hard to find trades today so far. Too many falling knives....

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    • "I'm gathering from your alias "iflyjets" that you have a little bit of bias and/or inside track on the airline stocks."

      I was a pilot for United Airlines; I was furloughed in March 2002. I was recalled in Jan of this year, but am staying on military leave of absence until I have to go back. At this point, I expect to be furloughed from United again before I return. The entire economy is on the verge of going into a long and deep recession.

      The airline industry is the first to take a nosedive and the last to recover when the economy goes south. Since I am aware of quite a bit of the workings of the industry, I was able to use that knowledge to make a decent chunk of money on NWAC, FLYI, and DAL when they went chap 11. Of the three, FLYI was the easiest to call ... I looked at their business plan from day one and knew that they'd be in the pinks within a couple of years. A private startup, Skybus, will meet the same fate - I'd love to see them go public.


      "As far as other sectors...I'm thinking suppliers to the hb's....ac companies...lumber....tools etc. Any more ideas?"

      Furniture manufacturers are already feeling the impact of the housing market falling apart. You may want to take a look at companies that manufacture items for decorating and furnishing new homes.


      I think that we'll have a very good idea when this particular sector is done. NWAC and DAL declaring chap 11 was when the airline sector was done a couple of years ago - all of the remaining players were strong enough to avoid chap 11. Foolishly, I bet agains CAL and lost a bit on that one, but I saw the light fairly quickly and stopped shorting the sector, walking away with a very nice profit.

    • I appreciate the reply. Not many people on these boards are real. I can tell you are. I'm gathering from your alias "iflyjets" that you have a little bit of bias and/or inside track on the airline stocks.

      I used to have a partner in rental houses that worked for Delta as a lead mechanic. He's not there anymore. His 401 went from 300k to about zero. Tough luck. He runs a concrete re-finishing business now. I worked for him a couple of days. $150 for the day in Florida working my ass off. Screw that. That's why I love trading. Sitting on the deck of my boat...naming the pelicans and seagulls....and trading. Can't beat it.

      As far as other sectors...I'm thinking suppliers to the hb's....ac companies...lumber....tools etc. Any more ideas?

    • Thanks. I have my good days and my bad days.

      Just talking my personal cash account here; it's the one I trade the most. I was down $10.5K on it last Friday. I've been up the entire week; ended last week with just over $85K and am now at $116K.
      I'm getting a bit better on my daytrades; the bulk of my shorts on the account are longer term. I've noticed that they tend to rise in the first 30 min; sometimes only for the first 10-15 min, other times they'll move up most of the day. I look for a slowdown/downtrend before initiating my day shorts. When I close them out, I add a little bit to my long term shorts, as long as I'm up for the day. This last week, the only stocks in my cash acct were BZH and HOV. They've been dropping like a rock and I expect that trend to continue through earnings season. If either hits the Reg SHO list, I'll close out the short and pick another HB.

      After the HBs and mortgage origninators are dry, the next sector will probably be self-evident. Airlines may be a good choice; I'll wait until we get there to determine which sector to short.

    • Congrats on your huge gain today. That is excellent!

      It is hard work but I enjoy it. Like I said, today was not stellar. I've had days where I made a whole lot more. I'm averaging about 4k a week. I know a lot of people do better than that but I'm quite content. My expenses are about 2k per month.

      I would have made about 5k today if I had been holding the same shares that I covered on Thursday of last week. Had I held those shares going into Fridays Buffet rumor I would still be behind for the week.....so that's the trade off. It hurts missing out on the big gaps down like today but I can still found some opportunity. At least I don't have to deal with the gaps up and runs like last Friday.....and I sleep well.

      As I'm sure you've noticed....these hb's have a tendency to go up in the first 30 minutes of trading so I make up the difference from the gaps down by shorting the early a.m. spike without the risk of holding overnight. There are days when I make a lot even though the hb's are flat or even up a little so it balances out. Different strokes...

      I have a lot more margin available to me than I use...I'm working my way up to larger positions....but for now I just try to limit risk and trade within certain boundaries. For me the money is great....best job I ever had was about 60k a year...this is much better and less stressful.

      Anyway....best of luck to you. I'm trying to figure out what to trade when the hb's are milked dry....any ideas?

    • Geez, that DOES seem like a lot of work for a small profit. I have 7 different family accounts that I manage, although 5 are IRAs, so I don't trade out of those - the spreads on options are just too large to screw with. Of the two cash accounts, one is my mom's, so I'm a bit conservative on it and only short additional stock when her maintenance requirements decrease. I'll be shorting ~$7K worth of stock into her account.

      On my cash account, I'm more aggressive. It went from $106K to $116K today. I have 6000 sh BZH short and 6500 sh HOV short in that account. Now that the market's closed, I don't have to meet Reg T requirements until close of business on Monday. I'm expecting another nasty day on Monday, so I'll try to short an additional 5500 sh BZH on the AH. If unable to short AH or premarket, I'll open a day short on the stock on Monday.

      I ended up covering my entire BZH holdings today, expecting a big bounce in the last hour. It didn't happen, so I ended opening up the short on 6000 sh at 19.59. I'm happy with that; I felt that there was a lot of risk holding my short open into the last hour of trading on OpEx Friday.

    • I didn't find any new entry positions today. I lost my server connection when trying to exit len and kbh. (I live on a sailboat and sometimes have internet issues) Lost about .15 on each but I posted my exact prices.

      So the net on the day:

      bzh break even.
      len +.14 1000 shares. Up $140 - $20 commish=120
      kbh +.51 1000 shares. Up $510 - $20 commish=$490

      For the day: up $610. Not very good considering how much the market was down today. I'll do this again Monday.

    • closed kbh at 34.84 +.51

    • closed out len at 32.99 + .14

    • I just covered my 6K short @ 20.07. Covered 7.5K @ 19.60.

      I've got meetings all afternoon & don't want to get pounded on OpEx day. I expect a runup in the PM. Will reopen my short just before close.

 
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