bmw, you have presented a solid case to a person that has over speculated on the short side.
I like the tech comparison. I would suggest anyone who thinks tech has just recovered in 2007, will miss this bottom by 4 years as well. My life happens to be tech, I have a long history of picking bottoms. And absolutely no one on the street as you said, likes home builders...simply because you don't talk your book until the coffers are filled. This is when the smart money accumulates. By the time joe retail recognizes that HBs are back, well he's buying at 50 bucks a share, again.
Just the 91%, a tremendous increase from last month, likely brought on by the BK rumor, suggest massive retail short side speculation in this stock, which indifferent to the fundamentals make this an explosive play to the upside. Throw in fundamentals and you have a solid long term investment.
And as for BK, with the assets of these companues they minimally would be bought out not left with wood laying all over the country...lol.
With a book value in the high 30's, even a private equity shark would have to pay at least twice today's price on a distressed sale.
I do not envy, recent entry shorts on this one... x