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Beazer Homes USA Inc. Message Board

  • mark_z_1 mark_z_1 Feb 19, 2013 1:58 PM Flag

    CY Q1 Should Show a Profit

    New to the board, new to the stock, and trying to understand a couple of things.

    The latest financials and slide show from their website predict they should make around $ 10 mil. profit this quarter at their current run rate.

    The 11.9% spike in average home price ( $ 263.2 K in the current backlog vs. $ 235.5 K last quarter’s actual ASP) should translate into a gross margin boost to 26.5% ( i.e. 11.9 % on top of 14.6 % last quarters rate), provided inventory costs stay the same -- which they should be for now.

    At last quarters backlog close rate of 54%, this quarter’s revenue should be $ 258 Mil (i.e. 1,817 homes in backlog X 54% = 981 homes X $ 263.2 K ASP = $ 258M).

    Sales of $ 258 M at a 26.5% margin would yield $ 68.4 M.

    Subtract commissions of $ 11.4 M at the 4.4% run rate ( $ 258 X 4.4%) and you now have $ 57 M.

    Subtract G&A, Interest, and Depr. at last quarters rate of $ 26.3 M, $ 15.6 M, $ 2.7M and you finish with a profit of $ 12.4 M for the quarter.

    Can anybody do a sanity check on my math? Am I missing something?

    The other question, are the folks that run this company straight shooters financially or are they likely to stash most of a profit upswing away in some cookie jar for future use?

    Thanks in advance, Mark Z.

    Sentiment: Buy

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