Equal should experience a significant jump in reserves in their upcoming reserve update in early 2012, this is largely due to their active drilling program in 2011, which is approximately double their program for 2010 (slowed down due to Petroflow legal issues), follows is a summary of the expected increase:
Cardium: Booked locations will increase from 5 to 8. Expected reserve additions based on average well reserves of 190 Mboe = 0.570m
Viking: Booked locations will increase from 5 to 13.3 (net) (including one well in Q4) Expected reserve additions based on average well reserves of 83.5 Mboe = 0.693m
Hunton: Booked locations will increase from 17 to 27.6 (net) (including one well in Q4). Expected reserves additions based on average well reserves of 470 Mboe = 4.98m (The drilling program here was especially aggressive so the company could conserve its Mississippian acreage).
Mississippian From 0 to 0.8 net booked. Expected reserves additions based on average well reserves of 320 Mboe = 0.32m (based on SD numbers)
Total additional proven reserves: 6.56m Minus depletion of 3.5m
Net proven reserves increase: 3.06m barrels
This would present a 9.5% increase in reserves over the 32.09m barrels in current reserves (net of the disposed assets), bringing the proved and producing total to 35.15m barrels.
I have included the one Mississippian well in my reserve additions because as of Q311 the well was drilled vertically and was already producing, however its full potential will show once its fracked in Q1/2012.
With a Mississippian development program in the works, Equal continue to present tremendous value at current levels, the company core assets can easily sustain the company, while the Mississippian will be key in growing production or significantly reducing debt (depending on how they decide to monetize).
they need to accelerate their Mississipian play to prove out that land. low cost drilling and nearby infrastructure should make it appealing to management and imho it is the fastest, easiest way to increase share price