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Equal Energy Ltd. Message Board

  • michaelkosanovichkosanovich michaelkosanovichkosanovich Dec 6, 2012 1:36 AM Flag

    CRUDE REALITYS

     

    Hello all, i been looking at EQU for awhile now, and considered getting in at these low levels.However, after doing some reading im not getting in. The acreage seems good, valuation very low, and shareholder activism all seem great.It seems the perfect storm is coming upon us for descending crude prices. First of all, US oil production rising in 2013. Bakken production alone is set to nearly double in 2013.Eagleford, barnett, even the utica acreage is set to increase supply.Overseas producers like Russia, Canada, Brazil, even Norway are also planning increases. The culprit in the US is 30 mpg vehicles being sold. Heck im reading 40 mpg vehicles soon! US demand predicted to go 3 to 5 percent lower in 2013 for oil.Storage facilities not setup for this much volume. If the pipeline from Canada gets approved, which i see happening soon, THE MOTHERLOAD OF ALL OIL GLUTS WILL BE HERE FROM THE COLOSSAL OIL SANDS UP NORTH! I think EQU needs 80 per barrel to make a small profit. WTI crude may go to 70 to 80 per barrel in 2013. Im surprised with the current supply it isnt under 82 by now! I know you all been shafted by mgmt, and wish im wrong about all this. but i think im being realistic with the facts. GOOD LUCK ALL

    Sentiment: Sell

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    • You may be right about everything you said, but what does that have to do with EQU? Only 2.7% of their production is oil, the rest is NGL and natural gas. You should also know that US propane is now priced at about 50% of international propane, and two very important developments will cause that gap to close in the near term: the EPD export terminal expansion (January 2013) and the new DCP pipeline that transports NGLs from the mid-continent region to Mont Belvieu (where the exports happen).

 

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