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Uranium Energy Corp. Message Board

  • nangngayxua nangngayxua Jan 24, 2011 3:53 PM Flag

    consolidation is over

    This stock will go over $6 next week

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    • Perhaps it is indeed over now. That dagger at the end of the Dy ought to have killed even a bear digesting it.

      Seems it was a case of what some people call a moving average squeeze. All the moving averages had converged into just a narrow price range on all the time scales I checked.

      Although the price action is exactly what my last model called for, I have given up modeling this, there just are too many variables and this may just be a very simple case of 1-2, 1-2 leading waves ... which is what I was looking for in the first place, or a leading diagonal for the move up, in which case this must be its last oscillation of 5.

      • 1 Reply to unbeldi4u
      • I am sure the price action hasn't gone unnoticed, looks like UEC has come out of consolidation nicely in a couple of peaks and that spike on Friday.

        I will post a chart sometime, but a synopsis is this: UEC peaked in the first week of December at 7.48 which completed a strong third-wave rally starting at a price of 2.11 way back in July 2010. Since the peak, the stock has been consolidating in the chart pattern of a large zig-zag (A-B-C) formation with its lowest point at $5.06. The C wave was notable, in that it resulted in a an ending diagonal pattern consisting of 5 wave of sideways movement, and ending at a price of 5.17, which is the 'official' or orthodox end point of the retrace to be used for price measurements and projections. This marks the end of wave 4 of the entire 5-wave sequence. Wave 5 is in progress now and has formed a first peak, or subwave (1) with its own retrace (2). this can be used to project a possible target price of the rally that is unfolding, as well as various resistance levels along the way. These are 6.27 (61.8%), 6.45 (78.8%), 6.68 (100%), 6.98 (127.2%), 7.35 (161.8%) and 8.42 (261.8%), measured in terms of Fibonacci extensions of the size of the first peak. We should expect some resistance in price movement at some of these points. I would pick the last one, 8.42 as possible first target of this rally, pending further more detailed analysis, but it could easily reach beyond up to $10.16, the 423% extension.
        More detail perhaps some other time.

    • Too cheap.

    • Today's pricing was interesting and very encouraging to the analyst.

      I predicted the price would go to 5.75 and then pull back to 5.30. Well, the price went all the way up to 5.86 or so, driven by Mr. Bernanke's playing the dollar yoyo today. He had fun and so did our shareholders here. The triangle of action has thus turned into a barrier triangle with the horizontal trend line on top, which means it will eventually also be broken to the top. But after this positive wave today, we got the sharp price swing back down as predicted. It should go to about 5.30 very quickly as there is a lot of energy (nuclear energy after all) squeezed between narrowing trend lines. These sharp oscillations are a good sign that my model is on course with reality.
      We have almost rock solid support around 5.30, as this formation is sticking out there into space. For almost 2 months have we gone sideways essentially. Look at it this way, this is like a spring board at an Olympic pool, the last bounce (to be announced) will catapult this stock to new highs.

    • Well, there is a lot of sense in what you say. Only when the markets show us what is correct, after it happens, do we have certainty. But that wouldn't be any fun, now, would it? And we wouldn't need economists or analysts, just buy the market predictor box at Walmart.

      These matters are complicated indeed and we still have a lot of work to do in understanding chaos, particularly when it concerns the fundamental laws of nature of social behavior and societal and economic growth. I believe sociology today is about there where physics was some 300 years ago.

      I do admit when I am wrong actually. I have no problem with that, because I know the limitation of our knowledge. In another thread here, URRE, I admitted I was wrong about a triangle prediction, which turned out to go the exact opposite of what seemed right. But there was a very good explanation of that too.

      Having another explanation of failure is quite alright, I am sure you agree, because if we didn't, we would have to start believing in gods that know everything we don't and keep us safe.

    • I have a friend who makes a very good living using (i.e., explaining) an individual stock's price moves. I'm an economist. Both he & I while we were in grad school joked that you can never corner a stock technician nor an economist because he always will have a technical reason for why a stock did or didn't do what was forecasted. That's the beauty of your & my profession. No one can ever say we are wrong even tho we are always looking in a rear-view mirror in order to forecast the future. I wish you well, but I hold your charting no more creditable than my macroeconomic forecast for 2012. GLTY.

    • Well, I don't think so. This is still going to take more time. The prices have formed a large triangle pattern, that is internally complicated.

      Although this is somewhat preliminary, I do believe at this point, that it is forming another triangle in one of the legs, C or D, of the larger degree triangle. A triangle consists of 5 internal waves (A-E), each a zig-zag move between the upper trend line and the lower trend line, up or down.

      If you look at the terminal points so far printed it would result in a descending triangle, but that is usually not a valid pattern in what we have is clearly an uptrend. I see no bearishness that would warrant a trend change. It is clear there is energy confined in the moves inside the triangle causing swift short moves, while the pattern has been getting more complicated.
      We'll see how it plays out.
      Consolidations often taken longer than we think, or longer than many traders have patience for.

    • what exactly do you base your statement on. or is simply a guess?

0.86-0.1004(-10.45%)Jun 24 4:03 PMEDT