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North American Palladium Limited ┼×irket Message Board

  • daviebri daviebri Jun 21, 2007 12:53 PM Flag

    Bullish On PAL

    For the record, I am long PAL strictly due to TA, I do not dig into the fundamentals or try to 2nd guess what the market already has accounted for and forward expectations.
    However, I also chart out commodities as well as stocks.
    All the metals are in bullish trend and this could last several years. Remember GOLD had been in a severe bear market since mid '80's (15 years) bear markets do not usually last as long bull markets but gives you an idea of long term potential. What makes PAL interesting is the fact Palladium has yet to rally signficantly (it is lagging) behind the other metals. Keep also in mind, it peaked in mid '00 around $1100 / oz, hitting lows under $200. If Palladium just makes a 50% retracement of the downleg, we're looking at around $650 / oz. Some analysts expect the price of Pallidium and Platinum to converge, with Platinum at around $1300 / oz and Pallidium @ $380, the convergence would hit around $830. However, that is under the assumption demand for platinum will slow and be replaced by it's cheaper brother pallidium. If Platinum continues to move higher (and technically all indcations point to much higher prices), then this will only make Palladium much more attractive and increase demand. I expect Pallidium to be trading several hundred dollars higher, as to the time-line, it first needs to break out above $400 / oz on high volume, when that happens the uptrend will be very powerful. Whether operationg costs are at $15 / oz or $45 / oz, if pallidium trades 200 bucks higher in the next 12 months, the $30 delta will be a moot point.