oddy, what are the odds of Pal making those numbers? I am thinking that next quarter will look like a -.20 . Last quarter was -.25, main reason given was exchange rate between U.S. and Canadian dollars. Pricing of Pd in last quarter was up maybe 10 dollars from about 440 to to 450 an .oz. A little better than 2%. Production up 21%. But last quarter it was up 17% and a wider loss due to exchange rates???? So any real progress is being eaten up by exchange rates. So what is going to happen when they announce another losing quarter? Management needs to express what they feel the price palladium needs to be for them to start making a profit. Bet they don't do it.
The reason they have not followed the Pd price is that you are looking at the Pd price in US$, while they have to look at it in terms of Canadian dollars, with which they pay their costs. The C$ has risen from 60 cents to the USD to a peak of 110 cents last October. Not good if you are selling Pd in US$.
You are also wrong on the hold back. This will always be there. It takes time for the raw metals to be refined by a third party and sold to the market. There will always be that lump of metal that has been mined, milled and extracted, but not yet refined and sold.