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North American Palladium Limited ┼×irket Message Board

  • steve_ogrady steve_ogrady Aug 4, 2008 11:28 AM Flag

    My Conspiracy Theory

    I have very little invested in PAL at this point.....10 Sept call contracts that will in most likelihood expire worthless. I paid 35 cents each for them so I'm out $350.

    But I am still interested in what is happening with this stock. As one of the few non-African, non-Russian suppliers of an important industrial and precious metal one would think that it would command more of a premium and thus a higher stock price.

    So why does the share price continue to get ground into the dust? Is it the trapped shorts like tellie thinks? I don't think so. These shorts have had ample opportunity to cover at a myriad of covering prices.

    I think there is another reason some big player doesn't want this stock price to go up anytime soon and that reason is that they are busy accumulating shares cheaply at the expense of the retail investor. And who would want to accumulate these shares? There are 2 strong possibilities, IMO.

    1.The Russians who already own SWC. If they control PAL then they control most of the world's palladium supply and would be in line to benefit from a shortage, real or manipulated, in PAL supplies.

    2.Kaiser. Perhaps the Kaiser family wants to take the company private(unlikely) or , more likely, they understand the precariousness of the palladium supply and are positioning themselves for a huge profit when the price ultimately does spike upwards.

    The advantage that the big insiders have is that their deep pockets allow them to be immensley patient which allows them to mover the impatient retail traders out of the stock.

    The 3rd possibility is that the company is ran by a bunch crooked, pocket-lining insiders but if this were the case one would think we would see a pump-and-dump pattern with volatile price fluctuations.....not a conistent grinding down to lower and lower prices.

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    • Steve_Ogrady ask:

      "So why does the share price continue to get ground into the dust? Is it the trapped shorts like tellie thinks? I don't think so. These shorts have had ample opportunity to cover at a myriad of covering prices."

      But the fact is those shorts have NOT covered, and instead they quickly accumulated even more short shares lately. as shown in the outstanding shorts statistics. That is a fact you can not deny. You must explain that fact. mathematically these are trapped shorts, the share prices are depressed exactly because they keep shorting more lately. Why would they keep shorting more. What would happen if they attempt to cover a significant number of shares? The share price will shot up before they could cover any significant number of shares. Once again the shorts have NOT covered so far.

      "I think there is another reason some big player doesn't want this stock price to go up anytime soon and that reason is that they are busy accumulating shares cheaply at the expense of the retail investor. And who would want to accumulate these shares? There are 2 strong possibilities, IMO."

      That can be anotehr explanation. So any additional short selling, plus any retail selling, are all absorbed by this big player who is on the long side. They are not anxious about the share price because they want the price to be low to keep loading more. When they are done, they will have their own way to move the stocks up.

      "1.The Russians who already own SWC. If they control PAL then they control most of the world's palladium supply and would be in line to benefit from a shortage, real or manipulated, in PAL supplies."

      If Norilsky is accumulating significant shares of PAL, shouldn't they need to disclose their holdings in some filing and become known to the public when they file? So far there is no such indication.

      ".Kaiser. Perhaps the Kaiser family wants to take the company private(unlikely) or , more likely, they understand the precariousness of the palladium supply and are positioning themselves for a huge profit when the price ultimately does spike upwards."

      Again I think if Keiser is acquiring or selling any significant amount of shares it will be disclosed in some filings. No such filing laterly. Keiser, as biggest share holder, obviously is not anxious about the share price at all. If they want to support the share price, they can, with very little cost.

      "The advantage that the big insiders have is that their deep pockets allow them to be immensley patient which allows them to mover the impatient retail traders out of the stock."

      Insiders by definition are long term holders. It's puzzling there is not much insider buying or selling at such extreme prices. Once again no one seems to be anxious about the share price except for the retail longs.

      "The 3rd possibility is that the company is ran by a bunch crooked, pocket-lining insiders but if this were the case one would think we would see a pump-and-dump pattern with volatile price fluctuations.....not a conistent grinding down to lower and lower prices."

      It's all related to platinum/palladium prices, which is beyond the control of the company management.

    • The price of Pd is down 40% in 6 months...that's pretty much what's going on here.

      • 2 Replies to monroe3181
      • The Pd price movement in itself needs to be questioned.
        Supply/demand does not answer the question.

        Why the Russian fight for Norilsk and the attempt to create a minerals super giant with the power to set world prices, particularly for Pd?

        Follow the Pd prices and see the daily movement when the Zurich market opens.

        Historically the Pd price has always been set by what happens in Russia. It used to be supply shortages. Now it is billionaire-sized pockets that attempt to take Norilsk and SWC lower during the fight for control. PAL just gets the fallout.

        if you are just a small-time bystander, it pays (very well!) to watch and be patient.

      • Yes, but it is above theprice last year when PAL was trading above $9 a share.

        Like I said, just on fundamentals such as PAL being the most stable producer of PAL outside of Africa and Russia it should carry a premium that has it above $5 a share.

 
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