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North American Palladium Ltd. Message Board

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  • joopthedutchman joopthedutchman Aug 4, 2008 9:54 PM Flag

    My Conspiracy Theory

    The Pd price movement in itself needs to be questioned.
    Supply/demand does not answer the question.

    Why the Russian fight for Norilsk and the attempt to create a minerals super giant with the power to set world prices, particularly for Pd?

    Follow the Pd prices and see the daily movement when the Zurich market opens.

    Historically the Pd price has always been set by what happens in Russia. It used to be supply shortages. Now it is billionaire-sized pockets that attempt to take Norilsk and SWC lower during the fight for control. PAL just gets the fallout.

    if you are just a small-time bystander, it pays (very well!) to watch and be patient.

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    • If it is a supply/demand thing, prices would not move in such dramatic way. Let's face it. It is NOT industry suppliers and users buying and selling. It's speculators buying and selling paper contracts. The paper trading is what causes the volatility. The extreme volatility is because of extreme leverage. Because to maintain a paper contract you only need to put up 10% maintenance margin. So a 10% price move in the metals is enough to completely kill you. So the speculators are forced to sell in avalanch fashion when the price drops. It has nothing to do with supply and demand. Buyers will come in as quick as sellers exit.

      • 2 Replies to tellurium_001
      • Demand is being destroyed rapidly and the market looks ahead. The wave of the future is hybrids, electric vehicles, CNG vehicles (there is hundreds of years ready supply of low cost CNG, and since methane is about 80% of the byproduct instead of carbon monoxide and other hydrocarbons, the PGM metals will have little use), and of course all the automakers are rapidly gearing to smaller vehicles which will use smaller volume catalysts and less PGMs.

        You are doomed on fundamentals. And future expectations of same.

      • "nothing to do with supply and demand" LOL LOL and LOL again! Nab you really are a dim bulb Dellerium.

        The PGM group has been a speculative bubble whose fundamentals have radically changed overnight. Demand is collapsing fast.

        Future demand will also collpase as hybrids, electrics, CNGs (which will use almost no PGMs), and smaller vehicles which also use less PGMs all phase in.

        Your dreams of wealth from SWC and PAL are soon to be gone forever, as is your money.

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